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Going with Zuko since his fire can melt Todoroki's Ice and Todoroki is relatively unexperienced with his fire abilities, whereas Zuko has trained with them all of his life. Todoroki doesn't seem to be able to redirect fire, whereas Zuko has been shown to be able to do that.
I'm voting for Zuko via him just being generally more experienced.
I don't think your giving Todo enough credit. Todo's biggest Ice Blasts absolutely destroy Zuko. If the fights not really going Todo's way, I see no reason he wouldn't bring out the heavy guns. As for skill, Zuko might have somewhat more real combat experience, but Todo's no slouch. He soloed multiple villians at the USJ.
Todorki would essentially be forced to fight zuko with the ice half of his quirk only because the second he uses his fire half zuko can just make him attack himself and im quite sure that Zuko's fire could melt todoroki's ice, this isnt even mentioning the fact that Zuko wa shown beating the shit out of a group of rouge Earthkingdom soldiers without bending once excluding there leader of course so even if they both had no powers he would still win. Finally lets bring up the scenario of if zuko was hit by something like todorki's attack on sero during the sports festival i point you to the fact he can create Large Combustion Man level explosions which has been calculated here.