Ah, the time is here. This match has me like super excited.
So, speed is equalized, so I'm going to skip over the 'lol bullets' for the moment.
I agree with Arsenal that skill is debatable. Like, as far as humanoid opponents go, they should be around the same level of skill.
But Alec's opponent isn't human.
Even with the AP difference, Assefa's regen will continuously heal him from many of the scrapes that he an Alec will be inflicting on each other. Meaning that Assefa won't be slowing down during the course of the battle, whereas Alec will, slowly but surely.
In addition, when Assefa transforms, Assefa should actually have the skill advantage. I'm fairly certain Alec has never fought a Mngwa, and likely has limited knowledge on fighting animals. Yet Assefa isn't any ordinary animal in that he is incredibly agile, can leap several meters into the air, has slightly longer range with his claws, and can tear through Alec with his teeth regardless of the AP vs dura here, as his teeth (and claws to a slightly lesser extent) can tear through scales, tough coats, blubber, and other things latent to animals and preternaturals that provide them with more durability. In addition, if Assefa is able to actually land on Alec, which is far from impossible, Alec isn't getting up due to his inferior lifting strength when compared to Assefa's weight. Not to mention that because his shift is instant, he could take one of the moments where he'll momentarily have the advantage in CQC to simply shift and be on top of him that way as well.
Lastly, there's Sanura's necklace. His ace that essentially makes it so he really shouldn't lose at all. We could argue about how they'll eventually wear each other down, as it'll be AP vs regen and a battle of stamina. But Alec doesn't seem to have the capacity to actually just up and one shot Assefa. Meaning he'd have to manage to inflict a devastating attack instead. Something that would likely break bones. In which case, Sanura's necklace would activate, heat Assefa's skin, restore Assefa's body and stamina, and from there, Assefa can go to town because he has full energy whereas Alec doesn't.
Alec's best chance is to honestly just try to shoot Assefa. But speed is equalized, so Assefa can dodge. Plus Assefa has regen that will let him heal from it, so it's diminished even less. And because SBA has them in Central Park, Assefa could potentially escape and sneak up on Alec in Mngwa form, as Assefa has feats of sneaking up on others while in human form. Being so impressive that he followed a man from outside into his office and closed the door, and the man didn't notice a thing. Alec doesn't have enhanced senses, so there's no reason as to why he would see Assefa coming. Whereas Assefa's would help him know certain things are coming, and to just not be caught off guard in general.
The way I essentially see it is as follows.
If they start with guns, Assefa likely tries dodging most of them and finds cover in order to sneak up on Alec. The guy doesn't have infinite bullets, so Assefa could just attempt to bait the bullets out as well. And even if he's struck by a few, his regen will help him out.
If they start with CQC, they'll unlikely to use their guns at all. Their skill is about equal, so they'll both likely be taking chip damage. Only Assefa regens while Alec doesn't, so overtime, Alec's injuries will build. And it'll only be more difficult once Assefa transforms as Assefa has years upon years of experience fighting as a cat against humans or other preternaturals, whereas Alec likely has little experience fighting against a sentient cat spirit personified. And Assefa's regen is better in Mngwa form than in human form (And the feat listed on his page is while he was in human form), and Assefa will also be faster and more agile.
Lastly, Sanura's necklace is there as a failsafe. Should anything happen to Assefa that is beyond his regen or something of that sort, it'll activate. In the CQC scenario, Alec will already be making contact with Assefa, and will likely suffer worst than the Leucrota. It'll likely take his skin right off. As for the bullet scenario, at that point, Alec would likely be close to being out of bullets, and wouldn't know that Assefa's body has heated to such an extent until he tried to engage in his only option of CQC, which would end rather miserably.
Overall, Assefa should take this rather handily after a decently long battle due to his regen, his skill advantage in Mngwa form, and Sanura's necklace as a failsafe.
Smiles devilishly
I have arrived
