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Magic isn't his main tool, his sword has similar range anyway to most of it, and it will heal him. AOE isn't as much of an advantage as he can heal the damage.
Divine Pulse gives Byleth a really good advantage, plus healing via Crest of Flames mitigates Natsu's AP advantage. Windsweep and Crest of Flames nulling counters should at the very least prevent some of Natsu's attacks. If Byleth needs health, he has Nosferatu to heal himself.
Assuming Byleth only has the Sword of the Creator and no battalion, it'll probably be a close battle with Natsu very slightly in the lead due to AP till Byleth just divine pulses Natsu's strongest blows and makes sure that his hits hit.
Hundreds of meters probably refers to some of the longer range ones (does Byleth get meteor?) the sword is still comparable on range to a vast majority of them.
He's superior to pretty much any of the other Three Houses people and is literally impossible to take on in a one on one fight and win against within the game.
Natsu being a brawler hard screws him here and Byleth is more versatile in CQC with the SoC and has greater CQC range, Natsu attacking CQC in character is also much more likely then range spamming and to top it all off even if Natsu does use Range and Byleth doesn't dodge divine pulse can rewind it.
I can't find the convo but Byleth here heavily upscales from his earlier self, who upscales a fair bit from the likes of Felix, who were trained since childhood in combat and can cut massive amounts of flying logs in a single strike (what was it like 30.?) in an early part of the game. And if I can find a few convos then I can likely get it higher.