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Lugia gets round 3 due to the capability of one-shotting them with AoE attacks.
The other 2 rounds are tough. It will be impossible for them to get past the durability of Lugia, as country is too far ahead of island to compare, so at best, inconclusive due to speed advantage, or Lugia uses AoE attacks that are nigh-impossible to avoid, despite their superior speed. By the way, speed would be an important factor if Lugia didn't have AoE attacks or massively superior durability, which could at best go into inconclusive for the Marines.
I also don't see how the Admirals will even touch Lugia considering the fact that he can fly quite high and manipulate the weather just by flapping his wings.