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Well I'm finally back, so I'm returning with this matchup. This time there's two rounds, one with speed equalized and the other round being unequalized. Also of note is that the Luffy I'm using is the CP9 Saga/Whitebeard War Saga Luffy, so any moves and forms after the sagas are not allowed.
 
with speed equalized, Greninja wins due to higher AP and durability. Luffy's use of gears pre time-skip was severely limited and drained his stamina fast.

unequalized speed, Luffy should be able to win with high difficulty. He has higher range and can easily outspeed Greninja in gear 2nd. Afterimages and Luffy's stamina would work against Luffy, but once he is able to start landing blows on Greninja, he'd be capable of relentlessly barraging him with strikes. Even if Luffy can't beat him within a couple minutes, he should be able to injure him enough to buy himself enough time to recover from the fatigue he gains from over-using Gear 2nd.
 
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