Forest of Sus

[Damage3245]

Is this still a thing or can it be closed now?

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Can you close it for now, I'm too busy to actively participate, I'll DM sum1 when I'm ready to re-engage.

 

[KingTempest]

Aight

 

[LordTracer]

Arc asked me to re-open this.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Ik KT is currently retired but I’m going to still count his vote as if he isn’t since this thread was started before he got temp retired, and I don’t think it’s fair to just ignore his staff vote.

I’ll be making my response that I promised later today lololol

 

[AlexSoloVaAlFuturo]

I’ll be making my response that I promised later today lololol

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Boo

Spoiler

This one is long

This is wrong too. This should be the main issue.
The only thing circular is the position of the gates around the FOD, which Anko specifically states.
The Forest isn't like that, the forest is not a circular construct. The forest is a bunch of forests separated by different things like rivers and bridges.

"Training ground #44 is bordered by a circular perimeter, interrupted at regular intervals by Forty-Four locked gates."
The forest is not circular, but it's surrounded by a circular perimeter. Heck, even the ground isn't the same. The ground is a torn up area surrounded by soil and such, while the forest in that map is strictly grassland when we can see it's not the case.

Can you substantiate this claim with any actual evidence? Because atm we are only shown images of a roughly circular forest, so Occam's Razor would lead us to say the safest assumption is that it's circular. Generally when a border surrounds a perimeter it takes the rough shape of what it surrounds, my square backyard is fenced in by a square.

You said that the map was outdated, ignored the fact that there are 2 rivers and blamed it on the map's outdated appearance, ignored that the map doesn't show anything that the other map or the landscape shows. Saying that it contradicts the river amount is saying that it's wrong.

Saying the map isn't 1:1 accurate (most maps irl are not 1:1 accurate) is not the same as claiming the map is outright wrong. This is a strawman.

This is wrong.

#1 It's cut in thirds because the river splits the last portion at the bottom. On the map it looks small, but remember this whole thing is 20km in diameter, so that bottom portion could be a few kilometers out.

Not really sure how this contradicts my point/aids yours, if you could elaborate that'd be great.

#2 It is not called the "Forest of Death". That is a nickname for the area. The name of the place is the Forty-Fourth Training Ground, which means the single forest portion isn't even accurate.

KT what is "of Death" here? A Forest.

#3 You're bringing up density of the foliage, which is irrelevant to my claim. i said that there are open spaces in the forest, which the full showing of the map of Konoha doesn't show. It shows a spherical area with a bunch of trees over every single area.

The map of Konoha is angled meaning it could easily hide those comparatively tiny openings. This doesn't refute my claim.

I already countered this point.

I specifically said that you can make the case, but in the immediate vicinity around the tower, there is nothing there taller than it.

Again angles can obscure things that when looked upon in other perspectives don't. Maybe there's no tall tree in the near handful of meters, but we see the telephone line wires turn upwards, suggesting that not too far off there are tall trees. And depending on the viewing angle could obscure the building. Furthermore, the further away you are the more difficult it'll be to distinguish a "tree" like building from the trees.

The fact that there are completely different climates on the perimeter of the area and they aren't represented on the map at all is an issue with that claim.

Your same map shows buildings. It shows the Hokage Residence which is comparable to a >20m toad. So unless you wanna say that your assumption that this is the forest of death now makes a few dozen meters tall building hundreds of meters tall and wide, it's a horrible argument. "Tremendously tiny to the scope of the forest of death" yes, but not tiny in comparison to those other buildings.

Um I've acknowledged that maps aren't 1:1 accurate? That's one of my points... if this is meant as refutation you're going to have to explain it better, because it sounds like you're agreeing with me that the map isn't 1:1 accurate.

"Some trees overshadowing the river" no we do not, we see full out sections of no trees at all there.

The forest being angled wouldn't contradict the largest tower there being shown on the screen.

Perspectives can do that yes. Your incredulity is not proof otherwise.

Who told you this lie?

We see in Pain's invasion that the wall goes 360 degrees around Konoha.
The first fanbook says that the entire village is surrounded by a wall.
We can see that the village is surrounded by a spherical barrier and we can see the walls being aligned with where the walls are.
The portion I'm referring to about Konoha would be around the eastern side of Konoha. It is confirmed that there is an eastern wall of Konoha, where I would be speaking about. "It says east gate so it's not a wall", he says giant snakes popped up at the east gate. This is where the snakes are. A clear wall.

Your image of Konoha... isn't the full Konoha. It's just focused on the bottom portion.

Empty land ≠ training ground.

Check again. That shot doesn't show all of Konoha.

I specifically ignored the northeastern part of it because I spoke about the southeastern part where the 43rd training ground would be, which is south of the Forest of death, which is why it doesn't show the forest.

You cannot compare not drawing every single individual tree in a map to a map flat out adding large sections of no trees. The map has full missing sections of land and different rivers and you're comparing that to a circular area full of trees with no missing sections at all.

Your map literally contradicts every single piece of geography there is about the forest.

Heck, the map doesn't even show the gates

You use a single scan and multiple assumptions that contradict every other scan we get.

A bit to unpack here. Again it seems like you agree with me that the map isn't 1:1 accurate and rather we should only draw basic information from the map, like positions and shapes. Which would be a concession to the whole "river split" point. But are you trying to say that the village should include the FoD in its walls or that it should clip it with its walls? I don't quite follow your tangent on here's a tour of the village point. Furthermore, yes I'll concede to the fact that not every drawing of the land of fire is going to be perfectly consistent. That's of no surprise, Kubo draws the Seireitei a different size every time he draws it, etc etc etc etc. I don't believe nitpicking art inconsistencies is a strong basis to form a rebuttal on. Especially when we examine the fundamental information, a circular forest with a river splitting it, that isn't a common natural occurrence.

I never said the area is smaller. That's headcanon. I said the area you got is wrong. It could be 2000 kilometers, it could be 2 kilometers, but what you got is wrong.

And actually, speaking of that point, let me bring up the fact that you ignored a lot about your population point, and it's collectively wrong.

You assumed that it was just the hidden villages with people in them that contributed to the amount in the Allied Shinobi Forces, which you couldn't be more wrong.
This is not the population of the five hidden village. It is the population of the FIVE MAIN COUNTRIES, which have drastically more villages than five.

Konoha having 25000 Ninja is contradicted by itself. Konohamaru, a relatively new ninja, is given the Ninja registration of 012707. This is consistent with how Ninja from far back in time have older registration numbers like Sarutobi's 000261, and further ninja have numbers based on their order of joining (the Sannin have consecutive numbers (Orochimaru has 002300, Jiraiya has 002301, and Tsunade has 002302). Much less populated villages are consistent with it, as Omoi and Karui have numbers of CL6305 and CL6306.

They canonically don't have that much ninja. They don't even have that much ninja in the history of the entire village, much less all at one time. So even your amount of ninja is wrong.

I don't think saying Konoha actually has only half of 25000 ninja refutes my point either. It's still closely the same order of magnitude. 10^4 ninja. Maybe you'd have a point if Konoha only got like 1000 or so ninja from the main village, but it's abundantly clear that the main village was the lead provider of soldiers.

Ik you and Slayer were arguing back and forth but Slayer ain't here atm, so I didn't feel comfortable addressing his points. Feel free to highlight any that you feel are worth highlighting tho.

 

[KingTempest]

I'm ngl I don't care much about this thread anymore and I'm definitely not interested in arguing something as serious as this with the little free time I have

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

I'm ngl I don't care much about this thread anymore and I'm definitely not interested in arguing something as serious as this with the little free time I have

I don't mind if you wanna take your time with this, if you wanna revisit it again later, or if you just don't care to participate at all. I'm not in any major rush.

 

[KingTempest]

The latter, I genuinely am not interested in arguing about this topic

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

fair enough, I'll wait to hear what others have to say then

 

[Damage3245]

I'll give my thoughts on this in a while.

 

[Shadowbokunohero]

from what i read, Arc makes the most sense, the majority of the counter arguments are not particularly strong.

1. The majority of arguments seem to rely on creating inconsistencies between the minute details of the real life location and the map, this is fallacious as the map is not drawn to scale, the point of the map is is to highlight landmarks and iconography.

2. Some of the arguments are just incorrect things like sunlight not being visible when ever the most dense forests in the world have dozens of large patches where a lot of sunlight still enters, this is what allows certain fungi,mushrooms and plants to grow, regardless this is an arbitrary appeal to realism for no reason.

3. we dont have visual descriptions of the other training areas so arguing against their existence on the map seems fallacious given that there is more than enough room around the forest of death to account for those.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Ima bump this thread every handful of days when I remember. No rush Damage

 

[Shadowbokunohero]

Bump no jutsu

 

[Damage3245]

Oh, yeah. Forgot about this thread.

I've got some OP revision to wrap up, but I'll take a look at this once that is done.

 

[Damage3245]

Just so you know, imgur link is currently down for the calc anyway.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

I seethe

I’ll fix it

 

[Wrath_Of_Itachi]

 

[Damage3245]

Nearly ready to tackle this. Just waiting for the calc to be fixed.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh yeah I said I'd do that oops

 

[Stryker861]

Leaning toward agreeing

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Just waiting for the calc to be fixed.

Done

 

[Damage3245]

Done

Thanks. Now I'll start drafting my 15-page debunk.

/s

 

[Deceived3596]

-

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Thanks. Now I'll start drafting my 15-page debunk.

/s

In b4 the Arc curse causes Konoha to get downgraded in size

 

[Shadowbokunohero]

i just realized now that the title was called Forest of Sus

 

[Damage3245]

Okay, so I'm not entirely sure where to begin with this exaclty considering how long ago this thread started... So, although I know I'll be retreading old ground a bit, I will address the contents of the OP first, then delve into issues with the calc second.

It is common knowledge that the Allied Shinobi Forces, numbering 80,000 strong, are almost entirely comprised of shinobi from the 5 major nations. Not so commonly known, is that 100 people are required to feed a single shinobi. The Second Fanbook informs us that the 5 villages that comprise the alliance's populations are rated as: Leaves - 5, Sand - 2, Rocks - 4, Mist - 2, and Clouds - 3. Thus we can divide Konoha's (Leaves) value by the total to get the fraction of the alliance that would be of Konoha: People = (5/16)(80,000)(100) = 2.5 million people. Adding the shinobi onto that and you have a total Konoha population of at least 2.58 million people (considering this only factors in the man-power required to foster the military might of Konoha that went to war). This calc would put the human occupied area of Konoha roughly under 6000 square km, far below the largest cities irl. Meaning this isn't some crazy wow oh brother mega city, it is well within the realm of reason. Considering Konoha doesn't have towering skyscrapers either, it is consistent for their population to be less than the populations in the link to similar land area sized modern cities.

I do not think this is a relevant supporting point to the calc or relevant to the size of Konoha at all. That entry in the fanbook refers to the notion that 1,000,000 citizens of a nation are required in order to support 10,000 shinobi.

Konohagakure AKA the Hidden Leaf Village is not the nation however. The nation is the Land of Fire, one of the largest countries seen in the verse, and Konoha is just the hidden village; the places where the ninjas live and are trained. So even if we accepted your estimate that the nation has a population of at least 2.58 million people, this would have no bearing on the village's size and wouldn't justify the result.

From what I've seen and what I've been told, the biggest contentions lies with using this rough map to debunk the actual wide shot of Konoha. I take a few issues with the "but the river splits in the map tho" argument.

First, maps are often not depicted with utmost accuracy (with the exception of topographical maps and whatnot). Clearly, by how cartoonish the Forest of Sus map is, it is not an map of extreme accuracy. So, using it to critique the actual visuals of the land itself we receive is rather unfounded in my opinion.

Second, land can change over the span of a few years, especially when near a budding and growing civilization such as Konoha. For example, rivers can be dammed via natural means (beaver or a ninja beaver) or artificial means (Konoha diverting water from the river to the village). So, nitpicking a potentially outdated map is again rather unfounded in my opinion.

You and KingTempest have gone back and forth on this so I don't really want to get involved with it... I'll just say that the simplified map not taking into account the fact that the river splits in two doesn't automatically disqualify this from being the Forest of Death... But it does raise a question on how sure we can be that this really is the Forest of Death.

You say this...

End of the day we are told that the Forest of Sus is a circular forest with a river flowing through it, that isn't something that just natural pops up commonly. Most forests don't grow into naturally disk like shapes. The odds of another perfect circle forest with a river flowing through it is laughably low, it is rather obvious that Kishimoto intends that to be the Forest of Sus, and we should treat it as such.

But nobody is arguing that there just happens to be another circular forest purely by chance. We know for a fact that the Forest of Death where the Chunin Exams took place is just one out of at least forty-four training grounds that Konoha operates. Nothing says that they couldn't have multiple similar training grounds, and not all necessarily the same size either.

On the other one hand, I understand the rationale of assuming that the circular, forested landmark with a river running throughi that we see in the wideshot is the same circular, forested area that we've been introduced to already... But if all we've got to go on is a few similarities without actual confirmation then we can't deny that it's still just an assumption and an added assumption to the proposed method inherently makes it a bit more unreliable than other safer methods for finding Konoha's size.


Like I said earlier on the thread when this topic first came up, in a vacuum this kind of calc might be fine... But there are contradicting visuals which would go against the suitability of this.

Based on this pixelscaling the outer walls of Konoha would be almost 1600 meters tall which would make them twice the height of the Burj Khalifa and the outer wall of Konoha is not that big. (Can't find a clearer image at the moment, but there are others)

You've got the height of the mountain where the Hokage heads are situated to be 2509.8 meters tall. Does that appear to be consistent when you compare a clear view of it to all of the structures nearby in Konoha?

And again going by that pixelscaling you've used, you could get the individual Hokage heads to be around 800 meters tall each (again, just like the Burj Khalifa, the tallest building IRL), but compare that to the clearest shot we have with them, and we can tell that the Hokage heads are nowhere near that huge such as here and here.

And just for good measure, the Hokage's office would also be a least 1000 meters and... yeah, you can see where I'm going with this.


So in conclusion... While the method used might not be objectively wrong, if the pixelscaling isn't reliable enough to judge the size of the Hokage heads, or the mountain, or the buildings inside Konoha, or the walls of Konoha... I don't see how it can be considered reliable for the radius of Konoha either. There are too many contradicting visuals that go against that calc and its results so my vote is going to have to continue to be to deny that calc for use. Apologies for the wait.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

Okay, so I'm not entirely sure where to begin with this exaclty considering how long ago this thread started... So, although I know I'll be retreading old ground a bit, I will address the contents of the OP first, then delve into issues with the calc second.



I do not think this is a relevant supporting point to the calc or relevant to the size of Konoha at all. That entry in the fanbook refers to the notion that 1,000,000 citizens of a nation are required in order to support 10,000 shinobi.

Konohagakure AKA the Hidden Leaf Village is not the nation however. The nation is the Land of Fire, one of the largest countries seen in the verse, and Konoha is just the hidden village; the places where the ninjas live and are trained. So even if we accepted your estimate that the nation has a population of at least 2.58 million people, this would have no bearing on the village's size and wouldn't justify the result.



You and KingTempest have gone back and forth on this so I don't really want to get involved with it... I'll just say that the simplified map not taking into account the fact that the river splits in two doesn't automatically disqualify this from being the Forest of Death... But it does raise a question on how sure we can be that this really is the Forest of Death.

You say this...



But nobody is arguing that there just happens to be another circular forest purely by chance. We know for a fact that the Forest of Death where the Chunin Exams took place is just one out of at least forty-four training grounds that Konoha operates. Nothing says that they couldn't have multiple similar training grounds, and not all necessarily the same size either.

On the other one hand, I understand the rationale of assuming that the circular, forested landmark with a river running throughi that we see in the wideshot is the same circular, forested area that we've been introduced to already... But if all we've got to go on is a few similarities without actual confirmation then we can't deny that it's still just an assumption and an added assumption to the proposed method inherently makes it a bit more unreliable than other safer methods for finding Konoha's size.


Like I said earlier on the thread when this topic first came up, in a vacuum this kind of calc might be fine... But there are contradicting visuals which would go against the suitability of this.

Based on this pixelscaling the outer walls of Konoha would be almost 1600 meters tall which would make them twice the height of the Burj Khalifa and the outer wall of Konoha is not that big. (Can't find a clearer image at the moment, but there are others)

You've got the height of the mountain where the Hokage heads are situated to be 2509.8 meters tall. Does that appear to be consistent when you compare a clear view of it to all of the structures nearby in Konoha?

And again going by that pixelscaling you've used, you could get the individual Hokage heads to be around 800 meters tall each (again, just like the Burj Khalifa, the tallest building IRL), but compare that to the clearest shot we have with them, and we can tell that the Hokage heads are nowhere near that huge such as here and here.

And just for good measure, the Hokage's office would also be a least 1000 meters and... yeah, you can see where I'm going with this.


So in conclusion... While the method used might not be objectively wrong, if the pixelscaling isn't reliable enough to judge the size of the Hokage heads, or the mountain, or the buildings inside Konoha, or the walls of Konoha... I don't see how it can be considered reliable for the radius of Konoha either. There are too many contradicting visuals that go against that calc and its results so my vote is going to have to continue to be to deny that calc for use. Apologies for the wait.

No

ill read and respond later

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

I do not think this is a relevant supporting point to the calc or relevant to the size of Konoha at all. That entry in the fanbook refers to the notion that 1,000,000 citizens of a nation are required in order to support 10,000 shinobi.

Konohagakure AKA the Hidden Leaf Village is not the nation however. The nation is the Land of Fire, one of the largest countries seen in the verse, and Konoha is just the hidden village; the places where the ninjas live and are trained. So even if we accepted your estimate that the nation has a population of at least 2.58 million people, this would have no bearing on the village's size and wouldn't justify the result.

I'll comment on this now, I believe I conceded to this already

 

[Damage3245]

I'll comment on this now, I believe I conceded to this already

No worries. Just wanted to tackle what was in the original OP.

 

[Guacamolefletcher]

Whilst the conclusion on the OP isn't by itself completely wrong, the actual calc being proposed in the OP doesn't look valid. I agree with KT's post.

Why?

 

[Damage3245]

Why?

Scroll up by about 4 or 5 posts.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

mf just not reading i havent responded to damage yet (its super bowl sunday so i wont today) but like you can read through this thread that isnt even a page yet to get a feel for each side's argumentation.

 

[Deceived3596]

we can't deny that it's still just an assumption and an added assumption to the proposed method inherently makes it a bit more unreliable than other safer methods for finding Konoha's size

What exactly would be the "safer" methods of finding Konoha's size if you don't mind me asking?

 

[Damage3245]

What exactly would be the "safer" methods of finding Konoha's size if you don't mind me asking?

Using other visuals for Konoha. Scaling landmarks like the Hokage mountain, the outer walls, etc.

That is, if we actually needed a size for Konoha as a whole. I'm not sure that we do.

 

[Reio35]

Disagree for now forest of death only appears several times smaller due to it being further in the background.

 

[Shadowbokunohero]

But nobody is arguing that there just happens to be another circular forest purely by chance. We know for a fact that the Forest of Death where the Chunin Exams took place is just one out of at least forty-four training grounds that Konoha operates. Nothing says that they couldn't have multiple similar training grounds, and not all necessarily the same size either.

The Issue is what makes the training ground notable is it's forest, it's the visual identifier that makes it unique from the other training grounds and the reason it was used in the first place. so the existence of other training grounds doesnt really matter.

On the other one hand, I understand the rationale of assuming that the circular, forested landmark with a river running throughi that we see in the wideshot is the same circular, forested area that we've been introduced to already... But if all we've got to go on is a few similarities without actual confirmation then we can't deny that it's still just an assumption and an added assumption to the proposed method inherently makes it a bit more unreliable than other safer methods for finding Konoha's size.

yes but many of our calcs are based on inherent assumptions anyway, what should be questioned is how reasonable the assumption is.

I cant speak about the pixel scaling part. ill leave that up to you and Arc.

 

[Damage3245]

The Issue is what makes the training ground notable is it's forest, it's the visual identifier that makes it unique from the other training grounds and the reason it was used in the first place. so the existence of other training grounds doesnt really matter.

yes but many of our calcs are based on inherent assumptions anyway, what should be questioned is how reasonable the assumption is.

I cant speak about the pixel scaling part. ill leave that up to you and Arc.

Sure. My main opposition to the calc isn't the assumptions involved. I'm not ruling the calc out by default due to it not being confirmed to be the Forest of Death.

I just think that it is an outlier compared to most other visuals we have of Konoha.

 

[Arc7Kuroi]

But nobody is arguing that there just happens to be another circular forest purely by chance. We know for a fact that the Forest of Death where the Chunin Exams took place is just one out of at least forty-four training grounds that Konoha operates. Nothing says that they couldn't have multiple similar training grounds, and not all necessarily the same size either.

On the other one hand, I understand the rationale of assuming that the circular, forested landmark with a river running throughi that we see in the wideshot is the same circular, forested area that we've been introduced to already... But if all we've got to go on is a few similarities without actual confirmation then we can't deny that it's still just an assumption and an added assumption to the proposed method inherently makes it a bit more unreliable than other safer methods for finding Konoha's size.


Like I said earlier on the thread when this topic first came up, in a vacuum this kind of calc might be fine... But there are contradicting visuals which would go against the suitability of this.

Based on this pixelscaling the outer walls of Konoha would be almost 1600 meters tall which would make them twice the height of the Burj Khalifa and the outer wall of Konoha is not that big. (Can't find a clearer image at the moment, but there are others)

You've got the height of the mountain where the Hokage heads are situated to be 2509.8 meters tall. Does that appear to be consistent when you compare a clear view of it to all of the structures nearby in Konoha?

And again going by that pixelscaling you've used, you could get the individual Hokage heads to be around 800 meters tall each (again, just like the Burj Khalifa, the tallest building IRL), but compare that to the clearest shot we have with them, and we can tell that the Hokage heads are nowhere near that huge such as here and here.

And just for good measure, the Hokage's office would also be a least 1000 meters and... yeah, you can see where I'm going with this.


So in conclusion... While the method used might not be objectively wrong, if the pixelscaling isn't reliable enough to judge the size of the Hokage heads, or the mountain, or the buildings inside Konoha, or the walls of Konoha... I don't see how it can be considered reliable for the radius of Konoha either. There are too many contradicting visuals that go against that calc and its results so my vote is going to have to continue to be to deny that calc for use. Apologies for the wait.

I will proceed under the assumption we agree the circular river forest is likely the Forest of Sus. It seems rather your contention is that it isn't the most consistent method of scaling, which is a fine take and I'll explain opposing viewpoints.

Credits to Deceived for this paragraph: You appeal to a list of unknown possibilities when you bring up the other 44 training grounds have circular river forests. Which could be a possibility sure, but there isn't any real basis to form that assertion on. Especially when the Forest of Sus is the only circular river forest we are made aware of. So, there is more precedence to claim that it is the Forest of Sus than not. This also ties directly in to what Shadow just said as well.

Regarding which is the best way of calculating it, I agree that using the shots you've provided with Minato and the Hokage heads it is inconsistent. However, my counter argument would be that the Forest of Sus scaling requires a single panel of pixel scaling to ascertain a size, meanwhile any other method requires you to go across many panels. So with the other methods you accrue a considerable greater cross-panel error and have a much wider room for error than using a single panel. This comes down to accuracy vs precision, having points near the bullseye vs having points close together. Since the lower ends have greater error, while they might be more precise (a greater amount of them at those low values/greater perceived consistency) they also have greater error which could make them less accurate (they'd be further away from the actual size). Hence, while the Forest of Sus calc may lack precision due to a lack of additional calcs it wouldn't lack accuracy in the sense it isn't prone to cross panel error.

I could perhaps see something like an "At least [smaller precise scale], possibly [larger accurate scale]" for its size, but I don't think a multitude of measurements that are more prone to error debunk a single measurement that lacks said error.