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Battle takes place at night... what's the status on the moon cycle? Full moon makes Arcueid nigh-unkillable even by Tohno's MEoDP. Also, what are the criteria for victory? Even when cut into 17 pieces by MEoDP, Arcueid regenerated given enough time; so if we take the condition to be death, then Gerald's going to have a hard time putting her down for good.
What does Gerald have in his favour against Arc? I'm not too familiar with his abilities.
Let's go with full moon for arc, but true night for Gerald, because I want them both at full strength.
His main go-to when he fights are things like summoning cold fire on top of people, which absorbs their life force and flash freezes them, and summoning alien worms directly into people's bodies which eat them alive from the inside out. But he is also capable of memory and mind haxing people and rewriting and destroying people's souls. He's also got illusions that are potent enough to make people think and act like they've been damaged - he once created an illusion of a horse charging at a crowd, and even though it was an illusion with no physical power, people still fell down when the "horse" hit them.
He's also got extra sensory perception that basically tells him the past, present and possible futures of wherever he is, the thoughts and feelings of anyone who has been in his location, and any magic (and it's nature) that is being used or has been used there.
He also passively absorbs things being created from the dark energy of his planet. Which might mean something here.
Ok so I've got a decent idea of his abilities now, but what are the conditions for victory? Death or incapacitation?
If it's death, then I find it hard to believe that Gerald can put Arc down since it's the full moon. Shiki notes that her lines of death on the full moon are nearly invisible to him, and note that at her 7-A key, Shiki could see her lines just fine. That basically means that her 9-B regen/immortality under the full moon should be at least comparable to her 7-A version; which is far superior to Roa's Regenerationn, who could easily regenerate from just his ankles - but could still be killed by Shiki's MEoDP.
There's Arc's magic resistance, which should nullify all but Gerald's absolute best spells. Even weakened, Arc's marble phantasm could still tear Roa's body (similar level of durability to Gerald's) to literal shreds nigh-instantly, to the point that only his ankles were still intact. I doubt Gerald's regen can help him there.
Victory Conditions: Killing the opponent, removing the opponent from the battlefield for at least one week (BFR), knocking the opponent out for at least one hour, or incapacitating the opponent by putting him in a state in which he can not harm the other fighter(s) for over a day, are to be assumed as victory conditions.
How good is her magic resist? Because Gerald can tear through wards like they are nothing.
Gerald's Regen would absolutely not help against that, no. In fact, I should probably remove the low-mid, as it is something of a misrepresentation of his feats now that I think about it
Dear Sailor Vampire is fairly casually able to shrug off almost all forms of Modern Magecraft, though I'd have to wait a bit to say how that could fare compared to Gerald, and she has already formed a resistance to an absurd number of different conceptual weapons.
... Well, more than anything, if Gerald can't kill her with something on his first try and she gets back up, she'll just Reactively Evolve to it and become resistant, if not even more resistant if she wasn't before already.
What are the conditions for this soul rewritting and destroying?
I'd say that Gerald's stuff would have a fairly high amount of mystery if not raw power, seeing as he's not only lived for a thousand years, he's become his own legend for about a country / continent of people.
There aren't really any conditions to the rewriting. He's mostly used the rewriting ability to rewrite people into decoys for him and his allies, by altering them on physical and spiritual levels until they appear the same as him and his allies, but he's done it on the fly and he doesn't really need prep time or anything to do it. Soul destroying needs him to either turn into a monster that can eat souls (he isn't one normally, but he can transform into one) or kill them with his sword.
I feel in this context is less of a battle of mystery. If we go to pure power, Atrium Gallista can perform Weather Manipulation magecraft, enough to actively use lightning in combat and potentially affect the weather in a much larger scale, given enough time, even when it was noted his method wasn't very efficient(I do believe he had helpes/fellow magus helping him with the ritual, but still). He's also not noted to be a genius by any means. Not sure how far this goes in tier, but on the higher end there's someone like Cornelius, who can casually use a spell called Sea of Flames to sprout 1000 degree conflagorations in about 2 seconds, and quite easily spam the thing, and there is no mention about this being the max extent of his power.
I see. I meant more if it was ever noted if he needed something like touching the intended victim, line of sight or anything of the sort, but thanks regardless.
Oh I see. He does require line of sight to use (or at least start using) all his abilities. He's mind controlled and telepathically contacted people from several kilometres away before, but only after he's already used his magic on them, and it is stated that if he can't see the fae (magic), he can't work with it.
Then, due to being physically superior to him, plus resistance to most of his arsenal of spells beyond the best of his options, I'd have to vote for dear Sailor Crazy Vampire.
Gerald's mystery is less than a thousand years old. Meanwhile, Arcueid could resist Roa's magecraft, which originated from the Age of Gods. Depending on the exact period of the AoG, that could be anywhere between 1500 to over 5000 years prior to the modern era. That's a lot of mystery. Gerald's magic is heavily resisted here.
Overall I'm voting for Arc. Superior range, firepower, and versatility with marble phantasm, plus vastly superior Regenerationn and magic resistance.
I just want to point out that mystery comes from how legendary the person is as well as their age, and Gerald has two separate continents either revering him as the prophet of the church and/or as a the monster of the forest. His existence also holds enough weight and importance that when he sacrifice it, he was able to rewrite the laws of magic for the entire planet.
I also want to point out that Gerald has had little trouble breaking through magic resistant wards before, including wards that feed on the energy of earthquakes