The first is just nonsense.
The second, you can in fact ascertain probabilities in real life out of sheer statistics and get a pretty good feeling for the development of things based on this data. That's how we can pretty closely ascertain how the development of technology is, or how we are capable of estimating societal changes decades in advance. While for us is faulty and prone to miscalculations (based on numerous factors), it is entirely possible. This type of rating would be Gifted, if you read our ratings, as it would be comparable to an expert in these areas. But, precisely, he bumps it up to 11, with being capable of pretty accurately figuring it out. That's a Genius at play.
You are greatly underestimating what a Supercomputer is able to do.
The third, once again, is not out of our realm of possibilities.