Damage, we had a full conversation and line of arguments about how many assumptions need to be made about your possibility in contrast to the ones made in the calc. Stop ignoring them as "being in my head," these are problems in your possibility you're blatantly ignoring. Your possibility does not exist without taking these factors into account, because if you don't, you have no possibility at all.
The only assumption made in the calc was that the ice wall formed before Aizawa finished blinking. That is the only assumption necessary, all other context clues can be found in the manga itself. How Aizawa reacted, why it took him so long to react, etc. are all answered in the manga in this possibility. There are manga panels to coincide with the possibility of this assumption.
Your possibility requires more assumptions than that. Your possibility require that you assume Todoroki only made enough ice to cover himself and Momo, which has no support from the manga. Whether you like it or not, that is an assumption about the situation you are making. Your next assumptions needs to be that Aizawa reacts a certain way to his capture tape being frozen, a way that is very contradictory to his character and reaction speed. Aizawa would need to do absolutely nothing about his Capture Tape being frozen in order for your possibility to continue being feasible. In order to cover this contradiction, you then have to assume agai that post blink, he was just so incredibly shocked that he couldn't see Momo and Todoroki anymore that he just waited in midair while the ice, which he can easily react to, traveled along his scarf until it was right next to him, all while he just stared at the ice wall continuing to form, eyes completely open. That's two assumptions about Aizawa's character you have to make with no evidence backing you up whatsoever, and one assumption about the speed at which Todoroki can form his ice.
Do you see the difference in assumptions? Only one thing is assumed for the calc, the timeframe Todoroki made his ice. Your possibility assumes not only the timeframe he made the ice, which, unlike the calc, has no manga panel to act as evidence for it, but also a contradictory reaction from a character, with no evidence to suggest he would react this way, and another assumption to cover that contradictory, which, again, has no evidence to suggest it's true.