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Lucy through simple 2v1 battle advantage where Lucy can be a distraction with her whip and her spirits can attack Lucina or the other way around.
Capricorn is also incredible skilled so he could deal with her double strike with ignoring durabilty by simple dodging it, or Lucy could immobilise her with her whip etc.
Plus Lucy's spirits most notably Loke could easily show up in the middle of the battle if Lucy is in danger which would allow her to dodge Lucina's most dangerous attacks herself.
I'm voting Lucina; not sure where Lucy is in the 8-A range, but Lucina scales to Bolganone; which was calc'd at 531 tons of TNT equivalent. Additionally, Lucina is no stranger to 2 vs 1 matches or with highly skilled manipulators. Her swordsmanship is overall better than Lucy skills with a whip in my opinion, plus she's got Aether and healing to use to her advantage.
Yeah, and Lucy at this point isn't proficient when it comes to summoning more than one celestial spirit. Also lucina has fought pairs of enemies more than once throughout awakening.
She doesn't have to summon more than one to have fighting advantage. Lucina may have fought in 2v1, but that doesn't take away Lucy's advantage at all.
And don't forget Lucy's spirits have range advantage and even Lucy with her whip does.
Lucina has survived and recovered from fatal woulds as have several other characters in the same game. Any way, what are some notable intelligence feats from Capricorn? Lucina was able to survive on her own for years even in a post apocalyptic world that was completely ruined by Grima.
Celestial spirits are far older and have far greater battle experience than Lucy and Lucina all together. That said Lucy even used Capricorn to attack Precht/Hades (Fairy Tail).
Ok, so she used an archer to shoot someone who doesn't scale to her. Big deal. Lucina still knows how to deal with 2 enemies at once. And she's beaten Grima, someone that's also far older than both of them. So experience is rendered moot for the spirits.
It's not rendered moot and 2v1 still matters. The fact she dealt with similar situations doesn't means those adavantage are nullfied or anything. An advantage is always an advantage, lower than agaisnt someone who never had a similar situation, but in a very close battle like this everything matters.
Spirits are still far older than grim (if he is a human). Spirits are also something Lucina never encountered.
And who talks about archer? Loke has range attacks, Aquarius has range attacks, Gemini can become another Lucy, scorpion has range etc... Pretty much all her spirits have range attacks.
hmm... it turns out that Lucina is 531 tons, while Lucy's top spirits (Aquarius and Capricorn who scale from Loke who scales from Gray) are 100 tons. A difference of 5.3x may be a bit much, although I'm not sure how much they have grown stronger since Phantom Lord arc.
If Lucy and her Spirit have enough hax and/or intellect, then it may still be acceptable. Especially if it's 2 on 1, which could give her a chance as well.