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This is honestly a hard one for me. As far as I'm able to see, the two are fairly even in terms of athletic ability and physical power, with the only clear advantage being Tai Lung's paralysis move and Prowler's armor enhancing his already impressive athletics (I mean, did you see how he cleared that fence at the beginning of the movie?). However, I don't think we know if it works through armor, and while I don't want to say that that's what the match will boil down to, I don't need to say that it would definitely tilt the match in Tai Lung's favor. Also, Tai Lung seemed fairly reliant on it, and didn't really have a plan if it doesn't work (outside of "hit it harder"). Finally, where Tai Lung is fuelled by rage and fury and all other kinds of emotions, Prowler is a consummate professional, and appears to consistently keeps his cool during engagements.
So in my opinion, if the paralysis strike goes through armor, it's Tai Lung's match; if not, I'm inclined to say that it would be Prowler's match.