Maxnumb is exaggerating here, but I think I'm still going for a pretty solid vote for Dante.
The ice shatter attack could definitely be dangerous, but it's not a likely win-con by any means. It's been brought up several times that Esdeath is unlikely to even attempt to use it and that it would be out of character. On top of that, Dante has been incased in ice before and demonstrated the ability to break out in a matter of only about a second, potentially even less, so Esdeath would have an extremely small chance to even use it. There's also Royal Guard, one of Dante's only hax agreed upon to be used very frequently in character, which has abilities such as Royal Release that could instantly break him out if Esdeath attempted to freeze him over as he has demonstrated being able to do so against similar attacks. On top of that all, it's often agreed that Dante is incredibly skilled at using Royal Guard against opponents with comparable speeds, which is especially applicable here since speed is equalised.
TL;DR: I'm not denying that Esdeath freezing Dante over would be harmless, not even close. It could be seriously dangerous to him. But with all factors considered, the chance that it will actually work as a win-con seems low.
The only other major ways that Esdeath could take the win other than with her freezing over ability is to rely entirely on AP and Skill, or to use Time Stop and overwhelm him.
Even if you assume that Dante won't use too many of his hax in character, it's been long agreed that he's fully willing to use Royal Guard. This easily gives him the ability to nullify any of Esdeath's attacks and reflect the energy of those attacks back at her, which means that her higher AP would make Release and Royal Release more powerful. Overall, it's possible to get the win this way, but it's not too likely even when assuming Dante will not use any of his other hax.
Time Stop is genuinely dangerous here, and I'm willing to believe it's a viable win-con for Esdeath. However, it can only be used for a very limited amount of time, and leaves her completely drained afterwards. Dante's regen means that it would be difficult to bypass this with her limited amount of time, and if she's not able to, Dante could quite easily get the win from there.
So while Esdeath undeniably has win-cons, and this is not at all a stomp like Max suggested, Dante still has a clear advantage here as every one of Esdeath's win-cons can be manipulated against her.
