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The minotaur appears to have more abilities, on top of resistance Hauzer's fire and a general range advantage in melee, given his comparable size and the axe, although Hauzer has its horns and tail.
Hauzer has a large LS advantage, so it could exploit it to shove and toss the Minotaur around or pin him down and shred him, so it's far from harmless and many of its moves focus on that.
How often does the Minotaur use his ranged attacks? Because while he resists fire, Hauzer seemingly has a slight edge given the size of its fire breath and the additional fireball, compared to the Minotaur's vibration attack.
Minotaur first move is to create the fire of resentment (it's a normal fire that flies), then it starts between vibration or stamina reduction. The Minotaur will use his weapon to block the fireballs.
How hot is the Hauzer fire? The Minotaur's resistance is between 600° and 900° degrees, but his fire can make iron soft.
As it is SBA, the two will be ten of meters away, the Minotaur will try to attack him with his shockwaves and fire, if he fails he will reduce Hauzer's stamina and try to attack him with the axe.
AP is irrelevant the two are almost the same.
So, here goes my analysis:
Hauzer and Minotaur start attacking each other, Hauzer with fire and Minotaur with vibration; seeing that it was not effective, Minotaur reduces Hauzer Stamina and goes into physical combat.
As Hauzer is superior at Ls, he could easily grab and throw the Minotaur's weapon. The Minotaur would lunge at Hauzer, which he could dodge for being acrobatic and then press the Minotaur to the ground and try to bite him. Minotaur could summon the fire of resentment to burn Hauzer's mouth.
In this prolonged fight, probably in the end neither of them would be able to continue fighting. Minotaur tired and injured from the bites and cuts given by Hauzer's hand; and Hazuer tired and burned by the Minotaur's fire attacks and constantly having his stamina reduced
Your analysis makes sense, and the two can also increase their stats, while the minotaur can heal, an overall they seem pretty matched in their own regards.
I guess Incon is a valid result, as neither of them seem to have the decisive upper hand.