I left this thread unread for way to long
Keep in mind that Black Hat isn't aware of what Sora doesn't resist, and therefore Sora ironically would have more time to figure out his wincon than him, which is further supported by a significantly lower movepool avaliable compared to him, especially if he notices that just using stuff like Thundaga or Graviga won't do it.
Let's break this down, Sora has 18 attacks listed that they have used in standard tactics (15 if we count the start where he would be at max HP) with only one of them being a wincon. Now let's address BH, I do agree he has a large amount of abilities but the problem here is very few are actually used in on actual targets as well as the fact he still has greater odds. Let's go through abilities, BH has a total of 46 base abilities currently (43 from the page and +3 from the ARG). BH has +4 wincons so let's trim the number down. Let's remove obvious ones that aren't and couldn't be attacks: Regeneration, Longevity, Superhuman Physical Characteristics, and Self-Sustenance) 42. Let's get rid of abilities that just either happen around BH or are not combat applicable: Fear, Madness, Empathic manip (all of them are caused by being in his presence for to long), Soul Manip (needs a contract), Technology Manip (Both happens naturally around him and since Sora has no technology on him that BH can see, has no reason to use), and death manipulation (By saying BH's true name it kills you, which idk how Sora would not know BH's true name or his name at all). This by itself narrows down the attacks he has used to around 36 attacks/abilities which is near double the odds of instantly winning the fight in comparison to Sora. There is also the fact several abilities have been shown to be unusable in in many terms or are flat out near useless: Cloth Manip (
nvm this ability solos), Body control (
has just been shown for intimidation so far), Duplication (
just used to scare Flug once), Sealing (Used on souls), Shapeshifting (similar to Body control and duplication), Non-Physical interaction (Sora isn't a ghost), Insect Manipulation (he has created them or used for transformation as a separate ability but the insects themselves have never done anything). Leading to a total of 29 abilities/attacks remaining and leading to a insta win percent of 13.79%. All of these abilities by themselves shows that BH has a significant advantage in the start of the match himself from all the evidence provided. With this estimate being heavily
low balled to:
1. Include abilities that would not gain an immediate advantage (Ex: Darkness Manipulation which has been used to create a cane/flair to other abilities or teleportation being the first "attack")
2. Doesn't increase probability for sound manip or possible winners such as explosion manip
which literal glance could make Sora explode (If you did it would be 17% with just sound and 21% if both are counted)
3. Include abilities that need some context (such as EE, if he even did it, being a ironic punishment or Immersion being used when people use tech or fiction related materials). Why I included them was because they could still arguably have combat potential which I did not want to be called out for.
I also highballed Sora to just have the notable abilities, with all Notable Attacks/Techniques: it ends up giving a 3% chance of a time stop being used (1/30,
15+
7+
6+
2)
TL: DR going through every ability, we find Sora has a
5.56-6.67% (1/15-18) chance of
instantly wining at best in comparison to
11.11-13.79% (4/29-36) from
Black Hat which has been
highly lowballed with the
11% including cloth manipulation as an attack and others as actual attacks.
Best case scenario for Sora is a 1.6x in Black Hat's favor (1/15 vs 4/36), if we include notable attacks for Sora and include explosion and noise manip for Black Hat he is 7x times more likely to get to the wincon (1/30 vs 6/29).
To make this problem much more straight forward BH also has access to precognition which makes the argument much easier for BH. And the fact BH can use these abilities much faster than Sora with just a glance instead of an entire motion.
