Geten can throw pretty sharp ice, as seen during the War Arc. Taking hits means impalement, and Izuku's movements are limited in 20% that he is bothered by them. It is a legitimate weakness, his movements are simple while in 20%.
Also in the movie, he only produce one kick at 20%, and his 100% movements were very straight forward. Excluding flashy visual effects, he wasn't moving anywhere as good as his 8% self. Just a lot faster and flashier for obvious reasons.
Izuku lacks any true ranged attacks that could break through Geten's ice, all while he can fly up and attacks from around 100 meters in the air. Izuku will have to jump towards him, and his mobility in the air would be even less than it is on the ground. Geten could also pin him under a large amount of ice, which weight surpass Izuku's lifting strength.
Izuku's High 8-C finger flicks can one shot if landed directly, but they won't do anything to his ice. Geten's superior ranged attacks, sharp ice attacks, crushing ice weight, and flying should let him take this match.