Ayanokouji vs L, but in Chess

[Nonynho]

Ayanokouji Chess Feat Analysis

Y1V11 Chess Feats AnalysisBy TheHuntsman1001 Special Thanks to: Gabybel76 and DAX PMFT.————————————————————————————————————— In Y1V11, during the Event Selection Exam, Ayanokouji performs a series of active calculations using his Cognitive Ability. These are now known generally as the “ch...

docs.google.com

this is a perfect copy-paste for a CRT wtf

 

[Nonynho]

No, LA means learning not predicting

Foresight is about prediction and anticipating, let's not get 2 different things mixed for no reason now

i'll reiterate:
By having higher LA, by the essence of the game he has a way higher chance to win

 

[XxZetsuxX]

i'll reiterate:
By having higher LA, by the essence of the game he has a way higher chance to win

If both have 100% knowledge in the game

How does LA help him here exactly?

 

[Nonynho]

If both have 100% knowledge in the game

How does LA help him here exactly?

because that's the essence of the game

chess knowledge revolves also around predicting answers to your plays in early game, mid-game and on the end-game
So if his learning capabilities surpass Ayanokoji's, means he definetely wins

 

[XxZetsuxX]

because that's the essence of the game

Again, prediction and LA are different stuff

His LA won't magically make him able to know every single thing about Ayanokouji when the feat in question isn't about predicting someone

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

well, i made my case already, I most likely won't respond, I am focusing on college thesis at the moment

but anywho, that stock market alone literally should be able to stomp Ayanokoji, especially in chess through his fundamental understanding speed and analysis (also pattern recognition via trends) inferences

I call this a stomp

I will go in depth more if needed about why Lawliet's Stock Market feat cannot be used here but I will write a simple explanation here since Zetsu asked. As for needing a CRT to remove it from his profile it's provable that the feat cannot be related to his intelligence so tbh I might do a CRT to remove it from his justifications.

Oh but i did find this, Huntsman made it

Lawliet Stock Feat Debunk

Lawliet’s Stock Market Feat: L earned an impressive 20,000x return on his stock investments in just two years, an outcome that under normal circumstances would be considered impossible. He gained these returns on an initial investment of 1 million pounds and these returns would shatter any known ...

docs.google.com

Read it and wait for him if you still have questions ig

This is already linked but here is the main premise. No matter how much finance/economics knowledge L has or tried to use to invest in the stock market earning 20,000x isn't possible via "perfect" Economics knowledge. It's just not how the stock market works. The factors that Zetsu quoted here are actual market responses to what L would try to do. Basically even with a theoretical perfect Econ knowledge price slippage would eat away your returns and you would run out of liquidity in trade volume LONG before getting anywhere close to 20,000x.

Anywho the problem of this feat is Liquidity, Price slippage, regulatory safe guards and more according to Huntsman

Then, we are assuming L has perfect Economics knowledge but that it totally circular anyway.

Premises:

1. L earned 20,000x stock market returns
2. L must have insane economics knowledge to do this.
3. L has insane Learning ability to utilize that knowledge.

The issue I am making is utilizing that knowledge doesn't make it possible to earn those returns so something else MUST be involved. And in that case we don't know that he has Economics knowledge at all that he applied here. Since he can't apply the knowledge to get this result we can no longer assume that he must have the knowledge to do this.


TLDR: Since the feat CANNOT be performed using Economics knowledge we know that isn't how L does it. Since he doesn't use Economics knowledge here there is no basis to claim he has such knowledge at all.

e.g. L doesn't have insane LA via Stock Market

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

If both have 100% knowledge in the game

they don't lol


Koji has multiple statements no diffing masters of chess plus actual feat.

We have no reason to assume L even knows how to play chess lol

 

[NitroWatch]

.

We have no reason to assume L even knows how to play chess lol

He has a week of prep time

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

The mathematical chances of achieving a 20,000x stock market return in 2 years through pure luck are 1 in 62 million, and this ASSUMES aggressive, everyday trading with perfect execution on highly volatile assets. If a person tries to achieve this by simply buying and holding a single stock for two years, the irl odds drop to virtually zero as no standard stock in financial history has ever posted those returns in that timeframe, so no a single stock returns of 20,000x is not possible so we can rule out single stock "luck"

100% Agree the odds of luck are incredibly low, and yet we know L wasn't aggressively trading. He gave Watari a list of companies to invest in and that portfolio increased 20,000x over the 2 year period.

Here are the two manga panels related to the Stock Market Feat

look at the math of compounding over roughly 500 trading days assuming the number of stock market days in two years, to achieve a 20,000x return over 500 days, an investor must average a 2% profit every single day without fail. suppose someone day-trades highly volatile penny stocks. Every day, the stock either goes up 10% or down 10% (a 50/50 coin flip). To hit the 20,000x mark, they would need to correctly guess right at least 312 times out of 500. statistically, the odds of flipping a coin 500 times and getting 312 or more heads is 0.0000016%

Therefore we know this is not how L did it based on the above.

A smart guy like L trading stocks and relying on Luck seems extremely unlikely for me, the math ain't mathing, it would make L a complete dumbfuck if he relied entirely on luck.

However to be clear that isn't the argument I am making. Luck almost certainly played a roll in his returns being "so large" but not in them being successful overall.

I am pointing out that his knowledge CANNOT lead to 20,000x returns since that isn't how the markets work, so something else also is at play. That might be luck in some capacity, it's almost certainly intuition somewhat, it could be any number of things. However since it isn't from applying knowledge the feat isn't LA. That's the point relevant here.

He has a week of prep time

I missed that lol.

 

[Vapidhoe]

I am pointing out that his knowledge CANNOT lead to 20,000x returns since that isn't how the markets work, so something else also is at play. That might be luck in some capacity, it's almost certainly intuition somewhat, it could be any number of things. However since it isn't from applying knowledge the feat isn't LA. That's the point relevant here.

Well, If knowledge alone cannot explain a 20,000x stock market return, then the feat stops being a demonstration of standard LA and either becomes a literal supernatural pattern recognition, supernatural prediction or supernatural intuition, which in itself, still would make him supergenius level assuming there is no hax in the verse besides the deathnote and shinigami eyes, and in the context of chess, he'll just spam is hyper accurate intuition of Ayanokoji moves and probably mate him in 20 or even less, or spam his hyper accurate prediction and just pre moves and mate him 20 or even less hikaru style, even before ayanokoji is thinking of making a move, i'm sorry, but that stock market feat is simply too insane for a mere mortal like L

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

Well, If knowledge alone cannot explain a 20,000x stock market return, then the feat stops being a demonstration of standard LA and either becomes a literal supernatural pattern recognition, supernatural prediction or supernatural intuition, which in itself, still would make him supergenius level hax besides the deathnote and shinigami eyes

That's the argument now????? Do we actually agree that the stock feat doesn't demonstrate LA in this case? If you can agree to that we should just forget about Stock Market entirely here.

Moving on from saying "it can't be explained by knowledge" doesn't lead to it being "supernatural intuition or prediction", it leads to the far simpler conclusion of luck, narrative exaggeration, or external factors like I said before. You're skipping the most obvious explanations to invent a brand new ability that has zero textual support, and that new claim needs its own evidence before we can even think about applying it to chess. This literally ignores a central premise of my debunk being that ANY NUMBER of factors could effect this result.

While luck is probability wise unlikely it's more likely than L has Supergenius levels of pattern recognition, prediction, and intuition and yet we have 0 examples of this ever showing up elsewhere in the story. (It would have been much more convenient for L if he had this kind of ability to use against Light, sadly he didn't.)

You just moved to assuming L has some insane level mental ability to accomplish this when that is even less likely than saying "he just got lucky". This would need WAY more substance to assert this as some kind of prediction hax.

in the context of chess, he literally doesn't even need to learn chess, just spam is hyper accurate intuition of Ayanokoji moves and probably mate him in 20 or even less, or spam his hyper prediction and just pre moves and mate him 20 or even less, even before ayanokoji is thinking of making a move, i'm sorry, but that stock market feat is simply too insane for a mere mortal like L

The Stock Market feat is an inflated narrative that adds no substance to L's intelligence, and that is just the truth of the matter. It's not a knowledge feat and it's not prediction hax either lol.

 

[Vapidhoe]

Moving on from saying "it can't be explained by knowledge" doesn't lead to it being "supernatural intuition or prediction", it leads to the far simpler conclusion of luck,

While luck is probability wise unlikely it's more likely than L has Supergenius levels of pattern recognition, prediction, and intuition and yet we have 0 examples of this ever showing up elsewhere in the story. (It would have been much more convenient for L if he had this kind of ability to use against Light, sadly he didn't.)

Sorry, Luck is statistically ruled out because the sheer number of consecutive, perfect financial decisions required to turn £1 million into £20 billion over two years defies the laws of probability in stocks market, like I said before, mathematchically speaking it would make L an absolute dumbfuck if he relies this on luck , L having Supergenius levels of pattern recognition, prediction, and intuition is more likely than 1 in 62 million chances of him doing that through sheer luck, and remember this is not a single stocks, but multiple one, which add even more possibilites of him having supergenius abilities.

narrative exaggeration,

I mean, it's fiction, anything can happen if the author wanted to, why is this an issue? If L make a stocks returns of 20,000x, you can't dismiss that as that would dismiss the entire premise of L's character or the author's intention

external factors like I said before.

Like what? you keep dismissing this and pointing out external factors but never told us what kind of factor

You're skipping the most obvious explanations to invent a brand new ability that has zero textual support, and that new claim needs its own evidence before we can even think about applying it to chess. This literally ignores a central premise of my debunk being that ANY NUMBER of factors could effect this result.

I mean, the entire death note work is the textual support of it, and you can also apply these through inferences

I mean imagine looking at a global map of scattered and unexplained heart attacks. He instantly recognized a statistical anomaly that the very first death happened in Japan, and the timeline matched Japanese school hours. By broadcasting a fake television signal exclusively to the Kanto region, he correctly predicted exactly how a kira would react and narrowing down a global suspect pool to a single region in minutes (although revealing himself after Light kill L lind taylor was a stupid move on his part, either inconsistency or L does also have an ego)

Also when Kira began killing minor criminals, L noticed the timing of the deaths immediately shifted to match the schedule of a Japanese high school student with access to police files as this is pure data-grid analysis, identical to tracking stock ticker.

even if these feats are not at the same level as the stock market above, through this inferences alone is more likely than Luck or "external factors"

 

[Vapidhoe]

I mean, i guess if L does have this kinds of luck, He'll just checkmate ayanokoji because ayanokoji hands slipped because of L's sheer luck with your reasoning

 

[XxZetsuxX]

I will vote Ayanokouji FRA

Given how DN works very similarly to IRL when it comes to stock marketing and all, the feat L did is unusable due to not following/breaking the logic of stock market

And so, Ayanokouji would win in this department as well

 

[XxZetsuxX]

And calling this feat luck or hax is dumb when the only supernatural factor in DN is the eyes, the book and the shinigamis

The rest of the verse is completely normal

 

[Vapidhoe]

this is a stomp imo

And calling this feat luck or hax is dumb when the only supernatural factor in DN is the eyes, the book and the shinigamis

The rest of the verse is completely normal

has been my entire point this entire time

 

[XxZetsuxX]

this is a stomp imo


has been my entire point this entire time

So a stomp in Ayanokouji's favor then?

 

[Vapidhoe]

So a stomp in Ayanokouji's favor then?

In L's favor, I already gave enough reasoning for people to read, and I am just so happen to be quite knowledgable in tradings

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

Sorry, Luck is statistically ruled out because the sheer number of consecutive, perfect financial decisions required to turn £1 million into £20 billion over two years defies the laws of probability in stocks market, like I said before, mathematchically speaking it would make L an absolute dumbfuck if he relies this on luck , L having Supergenius levels of pattern recognition, prediction, and intuition is more likely than 1 in 62 million chances of him doing that through sheer luck, and remember this is not a single stocks, but multiple one, which add even more possibilites of him having supergenius abilities.

Your luck argument only works if you assume L picked everything at random when he didn't. The only "luck" involved would be that they went up 20,000x instead of like 200x or 2000x etc.

Like what? you keep dismissing this and pointing out external factors but never told us what kind of factor

I did mention this and so did Zetsu.

Anywho the problem of this feat is Liquidity, Price slippage, regulatory safe guards and more according to Huntsman

This is already linked but here is the main premise. No matter how much finance/economics knowledge L has or tried to use to invest in the stock market earning 20,000x isn't possible via "perfect" Economics knowledge. It's just not how the stock market works. The factors that Zetsu quoted here are actual market responses to what L would try to do. Basically even with a theoretical perfect Econ knowledge price slippage would eat away your returns and you would run out of liquidity in trade volume LONG before getting anywhere close to 20,000x.

As for this...

I mean, the entire death note work is the textual support of it, and you can also apply these through inferences

I mean imagine looking at a global map of scattered and unexplained heart attacks. He instantly recognized a statistical anomaly that the very first death happened in Japan, and the timeline matched Japanese school hours. By broadcasting a fake television signal exclusively to the Kanto region, he correctly predicted exactly how a kira would react and narrowing down a global suspect pool to a single region in minutes (although revealing himself after Light kill L lind taylor was a stupid move on his part, either inconsistency or L does also have an ego)

Also when Kira began killing minor criminals, L noticed the timing of the deaths immediately shifted to match the schedule of a Japanese high school student with access to police files as this is pure data-grid analysis, identical to tracking stock ticker.

All of this is covered under L's normal intelligence, nothing here proves hax.

has been my entire point this entire time

Ok so then what is your point then? We agree that it's not a knowledge feat, it's not a hax feat, and it's not a luck feat.

So like I said before it's a nothing feat and should be ignored for our purposes here. Did you look at the actual panels with this "feat" btw. L told Watari to buy some stocks and they went up a lot. This doesn't lead to L having prediction hax bro.

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

I am just so happen to be quite knowledgable in tradings

Bro, not trying to be rude but I highly doubt that based on everything you have said so far. Not trying to dox myself here but I have degrees in both Finance and Economics and my day job is working as a Finance Analyst related to financial transactions.

If you are knowledgeable in trading why would you possibly think that "buying more companies = more complexity for L's predictions" or that this is possible via normal trading anyway. Just about everybody who invests buys a selection of companies, it's literally the norm and not some major complexity L is benefiting from here.

If you are really knowledgeable you should already know that liquidity in trade volumes for stocks and indexes will make it impossible to reach 20,000x WHICH WAS MY ENTIRE POINT FROM THE BEGINNING. Or that even if he could predict a major stock move, market regulations would kick in well before he could reach anything close to this level of returns. Trading would get halted on certain stocks in case of major events e.g. black swans too.

So like I said this isn't possible via economics knowledge, and if it isn't hax or luck then it's just narrative fluff. It's not scalable to anything.

 

[Zefra3011]

L's feat so ass you have to assume how he did it. Saying it requires this, this and this, when we don't even know if it can be done IRL despite one's intellect, it's pure speculation. "It requires an high level of pattern recognition", when we don't even know if there are logical ways to make such feat possible. "Supergenius pattern recognition" is not even a thing, since SG is genuinely being crazy in tech and sheer scientific knowledge. No amount of reasoning leads you to that tier.

Also, saying that since he could learn something that good and quickly, therefore he can do it with chess or other ***** it's also an assumption. We do not assume that Accelerated Development works on every possible field, game, and activity. We would need feats for his AD to work on various different fields, and always on that level.

 

[Vapidhoe]

Your luck argument only works if you assume L picked everything at random when he didn't. The only "luck" involved would be that they went up 20,000x instead of like 200x or 2000x etc.

even when we remove the randomness of his picks, the difference between a 200x return and a 20,000x return over just two years still cannot be explained by market luck, For a stock or asset to go up 20,000x, it requires an unimaginable influx of capital into that specific asset, If L told Watari to invest his £1 million into a standard, stable company like for example Apple or Microsoft, those companies literally do not have the physical room to grow 20,000x in 24 months. For a £10 billion company to grow 20,000x, it would need to become worth £200 trillion which is more money than exists on the entire planet L and Watari could only achieve this by trading highly volatile, and micro cap companies or by using extreme leverage and options derivatives, so Luck must be completely ruled out at this point.

I did mention this and so did Zetsu.

I mean.....IRL mechanics of liquidity, price slippage, and regulatory safeguards quite literally serve as the exact structural proof that L's brain operates like a Supergenius

If you see the scan, L literally had to wrote fragment of Watari capital, likely across hundreds to thousands of microscopic positions simultaneously. Watari would trade hundrends to even maybe thousands of different stocks, currency pairs, and commodity futures. L had to scale £1 million into £20 billion without alerting the markets or causing slippage, which makes L inevitably had to behave like an ultra-advanced algorithm, all of this is happening in 2 years, not even mere supercomputers can accurately predict and make 20,000x times of that off stocks markets alone, Managing this staggering level of micro diversification means tracking an unimaginable web of variables in your head without a single lapse in mathematical calculation.

All of this is covered under L's normal intelligence, nothing here proves hax.

Never said it was a hax, only inferences of him having either hyper pattern recognition, hyper prediction or hyper intuition, L doesn't have any Hax, the only hax aspect the verse has is the deathnote and shinigami eyes, did u read my message? re read it again, I edited it because i noticed a mistakes in the phrases, you most likely already typing your reply before i finished editing that message.

Ok so then what is your point then? We agree that it's not a knowledge feat, it's not a hax feat, and it's not a luck feat.

Correct, it's most likely not a knowledge feat, it's not a hax feat, and it's not a luck feat, but most likely a hyper pattern recognition, hyper prediction, or hyper intuition that should be enough to put him in Supergenius if he's really capable of doing that

So like I said before it's a nothing feat and should be ignored for our purposes here. Did you look at the actual panels with this "feat" btw. L told Watari to buy some stocks and they went up a lot. This doesn't lead to L having prediction hax bro.

Yes I do, and why an "offscreen" feat is dismissed ? You should make a crt on why this isn't a valid feat, if it's not valid it shouldn't even be in his profile in the first place so i wouldn't even use this.

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

L's feat so ass you have to assume how he did it. Saying it requires this, this and this, when we don't even know if it can be done IRL despite one's intellect, it's pure speculation. "It requires an high level of pattern recognition", when we don't even know if there are logical ways to make such feat possible. "Supergenius pattern recognition" is not even a thing, since SG is genuinely being crazy in tech and sheer scientific knowledge. No amount of reasoning leads you to that tier.

Also, saying that since he could learn something that good and quickly, therefore he can do it with chess or other ***** it's also an assumption. We do not assume that Accelerated Development works on every possible field, game, and activity. We would need feats for his AD to work on various different fields, and always on that level.

This is a great summary of why the Stock Market feat cannot be considered valid here at all.


I am going to go ahead and vote Koji here. Koji is far more experienced with Chess, and he has his Perfect Memory which will be very useful in evaluating positions during the game quickly. Plus he has AD (unlike L) so he can actually improve during the match, plus his Information Analysis and ANPR meaning he can predict what moves L will make in advance and prepare for them.

Stock Market feat has 0 implications here as explained thoroughly above. Nothing above has disproved that.

 

[Vapidhoe]

Bro, not trying to be rude but I highly doubt that based on everything you have said so far. Not trying to dox myself here but I have degrees in both Finance and Economics and my day job is working as a Finance Analyst related to financial transactions.

I mean bragging your entire career isn't that necessary here, i'm also used to be a HFT Quantitative Assistant Researchers in college, I'm assuming with your line of work, you would know what HFT stands for right?

Bro, not trying to be rude but I highly doubt that based on everything you have said so far. Not trying to dox myself here but I have degrees in both Finance and Economics and my day job is working as a Finance Analyst related to financial transactions.

If you are knowledgeable in trading why would you possibly think that "buying more companies = more complexity for L's predictions" or that this is possible via normal trading anyway. Just about everybody who invests buys a selection of companies, it's literally the norm and not some major complexity L is benefiting from here.

If you are really knowledgeable you should already know that liquidity in trade volumes for stocks and indexes will make it impossible to reach 20,000x WHICH WAS MY ENTIRE POINT FROM THE BEGINNING. Or that even if he could predict a major stock move, market regulations would kick in well before he could reach anything close to this level of returns. Trading would get halted on certain stocks in case of major events e.g. black swans too.

I believe i already answered above

So like I said this isn't possible via economics knowledge, and if it isn't hax or luck then it's just narrative fluff. It's not scalable to anything.

Fair enough, make a crt of this, pretty sure my points of this thread should open the eyes to many people

 

[Zefra3011]

Like, the feat works for the tier. VSBW doesn't really care if the feat is impossible or not. It just cares if it's narratively portrayed to require superhuman intellect and similar stuff. The problem lies in the moment you try to say these feats somewhat transfer to other situations. How can you even know it? Like, someone can build a time machine. We are not assuming those vague intellectual requirements transfer to other scenarios.

IRL we have people who can go to Harvard at 8 years old. It doesn't mean they can stomp chess masters.

 

[TheHuntsman1001]

I mean bragging your entire career isn't that necessary here, i'm also used to be a HFT Quantitative Researchers, I'm assuming with your line of work, you would know what HFT stands for right?

I wasn't trying to brag about my career lol, just making a point. That being said if you actually did used to work in high frequency trading you should already know about the issues I raised with the feat? In that case you should know even more than I do why it's invalid and not how trading works.

In fact, if what L did were possible via economics knowledge than your team and others like it should have also been able to replicate 20,00x returns. Honestly it should be much easier for you than for L since he didn't have access to the same level of technology and L wasn't trading on volume.

Fair enough, make a crt of this, pretty sure my points of this thread should open the eyes to many people

I might do a CRT for this tbh.

I believe i already answered above

That being said Zefra also answered all your arguments and you haven't replied to him either. He also fully debunked this idea

 

[Vapidhoe]

I wasn't trying to brag about my career lol, just making a point. That being said if you actually did used to work in high frequency trading you should already know about the issues I raised with the feat? In that case you should know even more than I do why it's invalid and not how trading works.

In fact, if what L did were possible via economics knowledge than your team and others like it should have also been able to replicate 20,00x returns. Honestly it should be much easier for you than for L since he didn't have access to the same level of technology and L wasn't trading on volume.

I believe i already covered this, though.

I might do a CRT for this tbh.

Do it tbh, L really should be Supergenius with this kinds of feat, which he is not on his profile

That being said Zefra also answered all your arguments and you haven't replied to him either. He also fully debunked this idea

No thanks lol, i'm good, it's like 6 am and i havent sleep yet, I almost finished for my defense thesis slides too, but thanks for the fun discussion anyway

 

[Doggo]

Hooo boy this is a goodie


When are we getting EG Light via his own Stock feat during the Yotsuba Arc

 

[AlipheeseXIV]

this is simply not possible unless someone really has future cognition, or is borderline supergenius, L kinda negs if this is true

This is not true at all, this is immeasurably below the realm of a supergenius, it isn't even remotely in the same dimension, in fact it isn't even a particularly high end EG feat. Yes it's impressive, but it isn't anywhere near as impressive as you're making it out to be

 

[Robo432343]

Netflix Light mogs both