Okay, to address the Kabutowari calc, I'll note that while there is a lot of foundational stuff in the explanation that could make it a
possible result for the feat, there is very little there which is actually conclusive or solid, or even likely.
The issue is that that specific person was ignorant of the reasons of the earthquakes, while the Paramount War was a worldwide issue.
The Paramount War being a worldwide issue yet this random man seemingly being ignorent as to the
cause of the earthquakes does not necessarily mean that this man was ignorant of the Paramount War itself.
It is not stated that everyone around the world knows what Whitebeard's Devil Fruit even is.
Even in Marineford, several Marines
react with confusion and shock when he cracks the air with his Devil Fruit and causes what they think is an underwater explosion. Other Marines are
confused by the rumbling and subsequent approach of the tsunami that Whitebeard causes. Obviously high-level Marines like Sengoku and Garp recognize his Devil Fruit power immediately and Sengoku then goes on to tell everyone present that Whitebeard has the Tremor-Tremor fruit which is a bit superfluous if everybody there knows what power he has already.
This is not to say that Whitebeard's power is some big secret; just that if even Marines in Marineford at the center of the Grand Line can be ignorant as to his power, then civilians in a different part of the Grand Line can be as well.
We're informed it's a worldwide issue because we see that everybody in the world knows about the fight. People in the
South Blue, East Blue,
North Blue, West Blue, and Grand Line knew about it. Even Momonga said that the
whole world could sense it. What is the one place that wasn't shown? The Calm Belt.
The Calm Belt is located right next to Marineford and Marijoa, and it's a place in the world that
doesn't receive news. If literally everywhere else in the world receives news, and this place doesn't, it means that this is the only place that doesn't receive the news, which means that island is in the Calm Belt.
It is never stated that islands in the Calm Belt is the
only place in the world that doesn't recieve news. Nyon states that "
the News Gulls don't come to the Calm Belt so news to very hard to come by", but evidently news
can come to the Calm Belt since she still recieves newspapers somehow, it's just more difficult. This does not mean the opposite; that
every island in every other sea in the world recieves news instead.
Who exactly do we see on this island?
One structure, two people, and some farm animals. For all we know this is an isolated family on an island by themselves and they just don't get the newspapers. In most of the other shots of people around the world discussing Whitebeard and the Paramount War, they appear to be
population centers or at least areas with a good amount of people. News passes through word of mouth as well as directly from the newspapers so we can't even say that every person outside the Calm Belt has to read the newspapers. To say that because
these people in each of the areas of the world know about the war, must mean that
everyone in the world (outside the Calm Belt) knows about the war is a big reach.
To support that, pretty much every island on the Grand Line is a crazy island. This island seems relatively regular. Regular animals, regular landscape, etc. Completely different from everything that touches the Grand Line. On top of that, the climate and weather is tame, unlike literally every other island on the Grand Line.
We see so little of the island in question that I don't think this is a strong supporting point at all. We know next to nothing about this island's climate and weather to say that it must be completely ordinary all of the time, and we only see what appears to be a farm on the island. There is no expectation that a farm in the Grand Line must contain bizarre or unusual creatures.
Not to mention we know next to nothing of what islands in the Calm Belt are supposed to be like, so we can't say that this island has more in common with a Calm Belt island than a Grand Line island.
The
one shot we have that is confirmed to be somewhere else on the Grand Line at the time of the Paramount War
also looks fairly ordinary and regular from a weather/climate point of view.
So I get where you're coming from in the foundational basis of the calc; but it looks to me like it hinges on a big Association fallacy. "
This person doesn't appear to be aware of what is causing the earthquakes. That must mean he is ignorant of the Paramount War and therefore doesn't read the news. The place where news is hard to get is the Calm Belt; therefore he's on the Calm Belt." That's how I interpret the argument being put forward.
As the entry for that type of fallacy says, while this is all
possible, there is no confirmation.
1) The man could simply be ignorant of Whitebeard's abilities, not the war itself.
2) The man could simply not be aware of the news even if he did know what Whitebeard's power was; this doesn't require him to be on an island where newspapers aren't delivered to.
3) Even if the man was on an island where news isn't delivered to; it isn't proven that the newspapers travel to
every island on the Grand Line.
4) The island where the man is not proven to be outside of the Grand Line just because it doesn't appear to display certain features like wacky weather or crazy creatures.
Because of these issues, I am firmly against using the calc at all, at least with its current method.
