Horus wins. Abaddon 'the Armless arm falls off in mid-block and Horus decapitates his ass's soul. Seriously, GW tries so hard giving Abaddon all of these haxes just to try and convince us he's an actual threat. He has as good a chance of killing the Emperor as Ahriman actually succeeding in a plan.
I wouldn't call this guy a tactical genius, more like the people he's up against are about as brilliant as Ork Nobs. It's like Plot Induced Stupidity is casted on all who goes up against him.
Seriously, he could have just bypassed Cadia but what does he do? Creed basically yells out 'Yeah, go ahead and don't fight us...like a *****~!" and Abaddon flies into a rage and abandons his original intentions and instead attacks the planet, losing untold amounts of forces (but thanks to GW, his 'true' Crusade fleet was merely waiting.), including the valuable Black Stone Fortress which gets one-shotted by the Phalanx after doing practically nothing ever since Abaddon stole it.
How the hell is this guy still in command? He's failed 12 consecutive times. Why hasn't the Chaos Gods raped and rotted his ass a million times over, yet? Even with the fall of Cadia, the forces of Chaos under his command are getting agitated by his incompetence.
GW wanks this guy so hard, his last 12 crusades have been such utter failures that he can lose all of his forces only to succeed in stealing a salt shaker and claim it a victory and merely part of his plan.