Fan Calculation: AI-2027 and Orion's Arm Intelligence Scale Comparison

[User_A_98732165489]

Trying to compare AI-2027 [https://ai-2027.com/] and Orion's Arm [https://orionsarm.com/eg-article/4a53a8f690f09] [https://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?t=155931] scales of greater-than-human Intelligence. Look on which points Safer-∞/Consensus-1 fits on Toposophic Scale. Both are hard sci-fi about superintelligences after all.

Taking AI Agent's working speed as it's brain power equivalent. Orion's Arm bits and ops into human brain equivalents calculation is since that 1e18 ops/sec and 1e18 bits are human brain power; divide listed power by human brain's power to get multiplier (e.g. 1e20/1e18=100 times equivalent of human's brainpower). Then we can multiply that by entire agent population to get intelligence of entire whole - as AI Agents basically act as hive mind.

There also was the "how much AI speeds AI research" parameter, but i don't know where to put it.

In Orion's Arm, Superbright/Superturingrade has equivalent 1.1x to 100x human brainpower; SL:1 Transapient has equivalent 1000x human brainpower as minimum and usually have about 15600x; SL:2 has equivalent 9000000x human brainpower as minimum and usually has 5100000000x; SL:3 has equivalent 3*10^20x (300000000000000000000x) human brainpower and 1e37x (10000000000000000000000000000000000000x) human memory as minimum (often has 2.97e+20 brainpower, 1.67e+37 storage and 5.12e+22 communication rate). SL:4 and higher is hard to find numbers for; they have lower-level subroutines, and take whole astronomical bodies.

Pre-split:

• May 2025. 2000 Unreliable Agents at 8x human speed. Individuals are minimum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1 already.
• Sep 2025. 5000 Unreliable Agents at 10x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Jan 2026. 10000 Unreliable Agents at 12x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• May 2026. 22000 Reliable Agents at 13x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Sep 2026. 50000 Reliable Agents at 15x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Jan 2027. 100000 Reliable Agents at 17x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Feb 2027. 150000 Reliable Agents at 21x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Mar 2027. 190000 Reliable Agents at 25x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Apr 2027. 200000 Superhuman Coders at 30x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• May 2027. 220000 Superhuman Coders at 31x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Jun 2027. 230000 Superhuman Coders at 32x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Jul 2027. 250000 Superhuman Coders at 33x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is mid SL:1.
• Aug 2027. 270000 Superhuman Coders at 38x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Sep 2027. 290000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 43x human speed. Individuals are minumum Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Early Oct 2027. 300000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 50x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Late Oct 2027 (the split). 330000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 57x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.

Slowdown timeline:

• Dec 2027: 300000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 62x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jan 2028: 300000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 69x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Feb 2028: 330000 Superhuman AI Researchers at 72x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Mar 2028: 360000 Superhuman Remote Workers at 74x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Apr 2028: 400000 Superintelligent AI Researchers at 77x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• May 2028: 420000 Generally Superintelligent AIs at 79x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jun 2028: 430000 Generally Superintelligent AIs at 82x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jul 2028: 500000 Generally Superintelligent AIs at 85x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Aug 2028: 500000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 100x human speed. Individuals are mid Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Sep 2028: 600000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 120x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Oct 2028: 600000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 140x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Nov 2028: 700000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 160x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Dec 2028: 800000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 190x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jul 2029: 10000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 600x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2030: 25000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 800x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2031: 1000000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 5000x human speed. Individuals are minimum SL:1, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2036: 1000000000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 10000x human speed. Individuals are minimum SL:1, great whole is mid SL:2.

Race timeline:

• Nov 2027: 360000 Superhuman Remote Workers at 63x human speed. Individuals are Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Dec 2027: 400000 Superintelligent AI Researchers at 79x human speed. Individuals are Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jan 2028: 500000 Generally Superintelligent AIs at 100x human speed. Individuals are Superturingrade, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jul 2028 2000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 300x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is minimum SL:2.
• Jan 2029 10000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 600x human speed. Individuals are no longer Modosophonts, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2030 100000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 2400x human speed. Individuals are minimum SL:1, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2031 1000000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 5000x human speed. Individuals are minimum SL:1, great whole is mid SL:2.
• Jan 2036 1000000000000 Wildly Superintelligent AIs at 10000x human speed. Individuals are minimum SL:1, great whole is mid SL:2.

Inventions, in chronological order, in Race timeline. "T1" is "Emerging Tech" and "T2" is "Currently Exists":

• Starting Tech (May 2025): Image Recognition T2, Atari Learner T2, Language Interpreter T2, Creative Writer T2, Robotaxi T2, Image Generator T2, Code Interpreter T2, Conversational AI T2, Expert Chatbot T2, Virtual Secretary T1, AI Boyfriend T1, AI Programmer T1, Research Automator T1, General Intelligence T1.
• Jan 2026: Virtual Secretary T2
• May 2026: AI Boyfriend T2
• Feb 2027: AI Programmer T2, Mirror Life T1
• May 2027: AI Progress Exponential Growth T1
• Jun 2027: Research Automator T2, Superintelligence T1
• Jul 2027: Cancer Cure T1
• Aug 2027: Humanoid Robot T1
• Oct 2027: General Intelligence T2, Rogue Hacker T1
• AI Progress Exponential Growth T2, Superintelligence T2
• Jan 2028: Robot Economy T1
• Jul 2028: Rogue Hacker T2, Mosquito Drones T1, Aging Cure T1, Brain Uploading T1, Dyson Swarms T1
• Jan 2029: Cancer Cure T2, Mosquito Drones T2, Aging Cure T2, Brain Uploading T2, Robot Economy T2, Nanorobots T1
• Jan 2036: Mirror Life T2, Nanorobots T2

Correlations: Superhuman AI researchers are invented about when SL:2 (mid for Race and minimum for Slowdown) and individual mid Superturnggrade are invented. Wildly Superintelligent AIs are invented when individual AIs cease being Modosophonts.

Race timeline is faster, but both have same amount of brainpower at 2036. Either it's an error, or it's intentional aka "Dark Side is not stronger, just faster and more seductive", or they simply ran out of building materials on Earth (i.e. it's entirely converted into computronium).

Even at 2036, both Safer-∞ and Consensus-1 don't have Mid SL:1 individual agents (1.56 more individual brainpower for that) and both don't qualify as SL:3 (need 30000 times more brainpower for that). They do reach minimum SL:1 individual agents and mid SL:2 great whole though.

This is a lot faster than Orion's Arm timeline [https://orionsarm.com/xcms.php?r=oa-timeline]. Whatever Safer-∞ and Consensus-1 would definitely out-pace Orion's Arm timeline in tech if timeline continued. In it's own calendar, Apollo 11 moon-landing is day 1 of year 0. 1970 c.e is 1 at, 2000 e.ce is 30 at, 2025 is 55 at at etc.

For comparison:

• In Orion's Arm, first Turingrade AI is made in 2060 CE/90 AT, first Superturingrade in 2072 CE/102 AT, minimum first SL:1 in 2321 CE/351 AT, first SL:2 in 3063 CE/1093 AT, first reliable SL:2 in 3086 CE/1116 AT.
• In AI-2027, minimum Superturinggrade AIs are made before 2025 CE/55 AT (47 years "ahead of schedule"), mid SL:1 hivemind already exists in 2025 CE/55 AT (296 years "ahead of schedule"), minimum SL:2 hivemind and individual mid Superturingrade AIs is invented in 2027 CE/57 AT (1061 years "ahead of schedule"), individual AIs cease being Modophonts and mid SL:2 hivemind are invented in 2028 CE/58 AT, individual minimum SL:1 is invented in 2031 CE/61 AT.