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My bet would be on non-canon base Tremor. But Toph may have the advantage over the earth that Tremor doesn't.

Tremor could, but he would have to practice and he already has a speed and non-elemental based strength advantage. Especially in hand to hand.

Other than that, she could kill him quite easily if she tried.

Also, considering the area, they both can manipulate it to their advantage.

So I'm gonna say Tremor, with high diffculty, most likely. Otherwise I would have said inconclusive based on the stipulations.
 
Looks to me that Toph can seismic sense everything Tremor can do except Fireball, and that can be countered as Toph looks to have good senses beyond her seismic sense, evident when she blocked a boom attack from Sparky Sparky Boom man.
 
After the upgrade and the possible Massively Hypersonic Tremor via powerscaling from Suppressed Raiden and Shinnok, this is now a stomp match and the page can be closed.
 
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