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Jin shouldn't be split in three keys honestly, but as of now he is, so you must choose which one is best using, which automatically prevents him from transforming.
I suggest Base Jin, as he already scales above 31 teratons for being able to oneshot Jack units, while Siegfried is baseline (7 teratons).
Ok, first thing, the AP gap is still considerable, with Jin being more than 4 times stronger than Siegfried and this is a major factor.
Siegfried can use Soul Charge to fill the gap a little bit, but we have no evidences it would be significant. But his greatest advantage is surely being a swordfighter with higher range, while Jin in base has only his fists. Electricity and fire are useful, but Soul Wave is resisted.
In terms of experience Jin should be advantaged, as he already mastered the Kazama karate, entered several Tekken tournaments and defeated great fighters and monsters, but he never faced a medieval knight and his giant sword, although he might have went against Yoshimitsu, but there's no proof of that.
On his side, New Timeline Siegfried spent several years facing opponents that were hunting him for revenge, although no one was like Jin, and eventually defeated Nightmare.
Overall, I think Jin would be able to take this most of the times. The moments he get in close distance he's going to destroy Siegfried with his much higher skill in hand-to-hand combat, LS and AP. Siegfried surely has his own chances to win, mostly due to the range advantage, but I see him on the lower side of possibilites.
Jin can use lasers in base form, he done it in tekken 6 campaign when you face him, which are planetary in range, also Mishimas resist electricity, Kazumi gets struck by lightning and it just makes an item on her hair fall before transforming, as well as moments when they hit each other with electric blows and are just staggered for a little, they resist fire too (but thats not atm in the profiles)
Jin also uses forcefields in base, did so on Azazel to get in closer at him and deliver a finishing blow, skill and h2h is a given he won 2 tournaments and beat older and more experienced martial artists (wang and jinpachi, both whom are in their 100+ years)
This seems horribly one sided here. I don't think Siegfried has a single chance of victory here considering he is literally just baseline and Jin starts off with so many advantages including being over 4x stronger than him. Soul Charge ain't that much of a boost and we have no legit number here. Jin overall just as more options compared to New Timeline Siegfried not to mention the fact that he is resisting most if not all of his stuff.