I think that Teru can take this.
Bakugo has the AP advantage: 5.13 tons normally with his strongest explosions being 6.68 tons of TNT, vs Teru's 3.09 tons of TNT. (Correct me if I'm wrong)
But Teru has his multi-layered barrier, which I believe would allow him to hold out against most of Bakugo's attacks. Teru has taken his fair share of beatings before too, he has some solid endurance. Ethereal Bodies can both confuse and attack Bakugo as well.
Bakugo can't really do anything to stop Teru from using his esper powers. Teru can attack freely with telekinesis and his Air Whip technique, as well as Super Qigong, all from pretty decent range. Bakugo can probably still reach that range, but the bigger his explosions are the more energy they take, and his arms ache after a few really strong ones. Teru's telekinetic explosion and pyrokinesis techniques probably won't work well on Bakugo thanks to his heat resistance.
Teru is a skilled enough esper to use two techniques at once, also very skilled with telekinesis, and with the use of both that and Air Whips, Teru could probably bind Bakugo with one or both and easily attack him. With the starting distance being what it is, he can probably do it the moment they begin. He's a skilled hand to hand fighter too, and can increase his physical power with his psychic power. While Bakugo might possibly be more skilled than him in that department, not much you can do about getting beat up, when you're being bound by telekinesis on top of it. Pretty sure that telekinesis + psychic boosted beatdown is a somewhat common tactic for Teru, too, and he definitely wouldn't hesitate to use it or something similar, once he knows that explosion/pyrokinesis isn't going to cut it.
At this point in the series Bakugo is a bit too green, I think, to pull out a win here. He has the power for sure but Teru is more experienced and has a much wider range of abilities, being more skilled with their use as well. A large part of Bakugo's skill set early on was his maneuverability, having a talent for controlling himself in the air with the momentum of his explosions. He didn't have nearly as many intricate uses for his quirk like he does now, but even now it's something he relies on heavily. That maneuverability gets shut down by telekinesis. Something like AP shot would make all the difference, I think that could potentially break through Teru's barriers. Howitzer Impact could get that job done, as well, but I don't think Bakugo would use it right away, and once he's tied up by telekinesis, he can't.
Plus, being in character, at the point in the series both characters respectively would be, Teru would be able to make Bakugo irrationally angry with his words. If/When Bakugo loses his cool, he's probably more likely to slip up and walk into something that Teru plans.
