That is a funny analogy lol
I don't know what to tell you then dude, it literally changes the course of events itself like the scan you are mentioning showed
BECAUSE IT REQUIRED IT TO BE PRESSED BEFORE THINGS STARTED GOING SOUTH FOR BRO, and it is also used many times in dangerous situations, that is why it's listed on his profile as a legitimate ability, because it changes the outcomes of events like that only when it's pressed. Maybe javen can explain it better than me but i don't think it gets any more simple than that.
You are heavily downplaying it's toon force-like effects as well
Nugget didn't even poof into existence like it normally does when the help button creates or summons something either. The most likely explanation is that he just happened to be nearby, and that's probability-related too. So if you need to see it in action during an actual deadly situation for max, there you go, done and done...
I mostly gave those specific scans to show that the help button does, in fact, work during situations where max is in grave danger, therefore logically toon force & probability manip should still apply in those same circumstances If what i think are clear showings of probability manipulation themselves aren't enough
Unless goku resists probability manipulation in the sense that changing the outcome of something (which is essentially what the help button does) doesn't work on him, i still have zero reason to believe he wins here, so i'll keep my vote on max
The help button isn't even max's only wincon either lol, you could make an argument for him winning even without being carried by the help button
like usual with either these:
Goku doesn't resist these either ^