I don't see anything to suggest Toji could adapt to Mirio's movements, which is completely foreign to him. A single strike from Mirio would break bones. I think people are underestimating what a 6x difference is. It's basically 1.3x away from the one shot value. Mirio is also going to get even more used to Toji's movements as well.
He's aware how people think about how to get past his Quirk, and him knowing his weapons can hurt him will make him extremely wary of it. His own feats of prediction far surpass anything Toji has done or dealt with. Chisaki's attacks are far more numerous, complex, and Mirio can avoid them for 5 minutes without intangibility.
I believe Mirio can handle Toji's movements.
Also, I find the
Low-Mid regeneration for Toji and Maki to be suspect.
All it says is that he suspects Maki has internal damage, which is extremely vague. Why assume this gives them
Low-Mid regeneration? I don't see how this goes past
High-Low regeneration. Actually, nothing suggest she had severe organ damage, or that she can regenerate severed fingers, toes, or ears. Note, that's not optional, only reattaching lost limbs is optional for
High-Low, the rest is something she needs for
High-Low.
A character suspects she has internal damage with no clarification on how bad it is? That's
Mid-Low regen at best. I don't see anything that suggest Maki or Toji could even heal a snapped bone. I can see Mirio striking him in the solar plexus to make him lose his breath, or take out his limbs to prevent him from moving.
Mirio doesn't actually know how strong Toji is, so he might strike him in the head while attempting a KO, and accidently dislocate his jaw and fracture his skull. In the same vain, Toji has no idea how strong Mirio is either. He might think he can get away with blocking a strike, and be in for a surprise when his arm breaks.
Due to SBA, both Mirio and Toji will start 4 km away. Considering the distance, Toji will use the Chain of a Thousand Miles when Mirio gets closer, as I don't see him using from 4 km away. However, Mirio is sneaky and won't just pop up in front of Toji, who has no way of tracking him while underground.
Early on, Mirio should be able to cleanly close the distance and land a solid hit on Toji, who'll be confused by his opponent not disturbing the air or making vibrations. I can see him guessing Mirio's intangibility before he can reach him. But Toji's ranged attacks with the chain aren't hitting Mirio.
Toji has no idea Mirio cannot see Cursed Spirits. I imagine if he does use the Fly Heads, it'll be for cover, and he'll be surprised to see Mirio doesn't react to them. I don't think Toji's dumb enough to attack without realizing that, but it's something to consider for him, since Mirio won't lose sight of him due to them.
Fly Heads are nowhere close to
8-A, they'd feel like feathers to Mirio. Heck, normal people like Mirio don't even notice them, they just feel a strange weight on them. At most he'd feel like something is crawling on him, but nothing more.
Fly Heads are so weak that they aren't even considered Grade 4. The minimum Grade 4 cursed spirits are so weak that a
wooden bat would be enough for them, assuming conventional weapons worked on them.
A normal human could likely kill a Fly Head without a weapon if they weren't invulnerable.
The majority of his focus will remain on Toji, who can kill him with his weapons. He'll realize this sensation isn't a threat instantly and ignore whatever it is. He'll probably think Toji's Quirk makes him feel weird bugs crawling on him or whatever. There only use for Toji was cover, which fails because he cannot see them.
Toji cannot escape Mirio either. Since when trying to run in a forest, he'll have to avoid obstacles like trees. It won't even slow him down for more than a fraction of a second, but Mirio being able to ignore them gives him an advantage. The fact he can predict his opponents movements while he can't see due to his Quirk, means that Toji cannot escape by losing line of sight. Mirio is just used to fighting without being able to see at certain points.
Even ignoring my opinions on his regeneration. Mirio isn't going to give Toji the time to regenerate to begin with.
Sorry if I'm coming off as rude here, I'm trying my best.