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Can your favorite character win the Squid Game? Check the rules

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Your favorite character will have it AP/Dura as 10-B to 10-A, doesnt matter what, and it speed also will be fixed to normal human to average human at best, passives are restricted, flight, teleportation, reality warping, CM, spatial manipulation also are restricted, actually, all hax are restricted, and even if u character cant die due immortality or something, if he loses the game, he will be eliminated, no matter what

the games will be the ones that appear in the order of the series
 
the games will be the ones that appear in the order of the series
I haven't watched Squid Game myself, but I'm interested in this, so I'll do my best to research, & try to detail things to build an understanding.
Also, if you haven't guessed my favorite character.... Well, you don't need to navigate to another url to figure it out.

Searching Youtube, this video is a bit long, but great for learning about the games.

Notably, the walls of a certain room, seemingly early on, show what games are played.

Games?:
1. Red Light, Green Light on a big, walled in field. 5 minute time limit, & at the end, those not past the finish line are killed.
Movement is detected via the eyes of a giant, robotic doll. Killing is done by guns mounted on the walls. The doll is SUPPOSEDLY trickable, since the show apparently makes a deal of 1 girl hiding behind other players, but considering the guns are on multiple walls, I think there's too many angles to be shot from for this to work. Maybe it's only 1 shot per elimination? Or if you're only shot if the doll detects YOUR movement.
The video I linked above mentions parallax & thumb-size gauging to estimate the field is roughly at least 100 meters to cross.

2. Before players learn the rest of the rules, players must pick Circle, Triangle, Star or Umbrella, & then pick a stamped shape out of a dalgona/hard sponge toffee/sugar honeycomb in a disc-shaped can. 10 minute time limit, & only 1 chance to get the shape right. Breaking it is also a loss.

3. Tug-of-War, in teams of 10, atop high platforms with a gap between where each team stands when playing. The order teams play in is decided by the guards drawing lots. There also appears to be a flag on the rope, which is cut by a guillotine, to decide when games end.

4. Get a partner, play a marble game of your choice. Get all 10 of their marbles, hand over to guard, win. 30 minute time limit. You get to skip this if you don't get a partner.

5. Cross bridges with panels made of either tempered, or regular glass without falling; The former can hold up a person's weight, the latter can't. There's a pair of bridges, close enough to jump between. Time limit of 60 minutes. There seems to be approximately 18 panels, with gaps between each, & metal bars at the edges of each bridge.
Apparently, the tempered glass can stand people jumping onto it, & the 2 kinds have slightly different reflections, & make different sounds when struck that can be noticed. After the reflection trick, was exploited, either because the game changes with time, or because of these shenanigans, the lights were turned off.
When the time runs out, the glass panels explode. This apparently injured, but didn't kill.

6. A toy coin is flipped, with square or triangle on it, with 2 players; Each must call a side of the coin, & the winner of the flip chooses who will be Attacking or Defending in the "game": Squid game (Ojingeo):
The attacker must enter the squid-shaped court, & tap their foot in a circle on the other side of the court to win.
The defender wins by getting the attacker out of the court. Any kind of violence is allowed.
 
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It's hard to pick favourites so I will just pick a random from characters I like. Going with Cassius Bright this time.

Extremely good fighter with lots of combat experience, master tactician, thinking multiple steps ahead etc he has it all. Assuming he doesn't just subdue the entire facility(gonna be easy for him) and actually participates in the games,
The first game should be a breeze. Second one would be trouble though since it's outside his expertise. His best bet is listening in on the girls' convo and figuring out what the game is about beforehand(which he will probably do considering he outsmarted the entire intelligence division of Erebonia which has people like Lechter who iirc has supernatural intuition). He will be able to survive the nights quite easily but likely won't kill anyone willingly. Third one should be a breeze as he should be easily able to do what the old man did but better+contribute his own strength. Fourth game will be easy as long as he doesn't have an emotional attachment to his partner. Fifth is tricky and entirely reliant on chance. If he somehow makes it through then 6th would be a breeze.
 
It's hard to pick favourites so I will just pick a random from characters I like. Going with Cassius Bright this time.

Extremely good fighter with lots of combat experience, master tactician, thinking multiple steps ahead etc he has it all. Assuming he doesn't just subdue the entire facility(gonna be easy for him) and actually participates in the games,
The first game should be a breeze. Second one would be trouble though since it's outside his expertise. His best bet is listening in on the girls' convo and figuring out what the game is about beforehand(which he will probably do considering he outsmarted the entire intelligence division of Erebonia which has people like Lechter who iirc has supernatural intuition). He will be able to survive the nights quite easily but likely won't kill anyone willingly. Third one should be a breeze as he should be easily able to do what the old man did but better+contribute his own strength. Fourth game will be easy as long as he doesn't have an emotional attachment to his partner. Fifth is tricky and entirely reliant on chance. If he somehow makes it through then 6th would be a breeze.
Aight, it indeed looks that he has high changes to win, which % of chances do u think that he has? it can be some arbritrary % that perhaps reaches the real result
 
Aight, it indeed looks that he has high changes to win, which % of chances do u think that he has? it can be some arbritrary % that perhaps reaches the real result
The only factors are the 2nd and the 5th games. He will likely figure out the 2nd game by talking to other people assuming the events happen the same way they happened in the show. If he doesn't find it out then the probability of winning this one would be 3/4 in case he doesn't choose the umbrella. In the 5th one he would likely pick a middle number, let's say 9 in this case. That means there would be 8 people before him. Almost 4 of them should be able to get at least one extra tile correct based on random chance. So he would have knowledge on approximately 12 tiles beforehand. And there were 18 tiles total so that leaves 6 of them upto random chance(1/2^6 probability). If he picks a higher number like 11 he would instead be left with around 3 tiles(1/2^3) probability. So this game is the one that will most majorly impact his chances of winning.
 
speed also will be fixed to normal human to average human at best
"Normal Human", unlike "Average Human", is not an actual Speed Rating on VSBW.
But depending on who's estimation you use, most humans walk at an average of 1.4 meters per second, or maybe 3 to 4 mph (1.34112 m/s to 1.78816 m/s.) or so.

Did you wanna clarify what you meant here @Bernkastelll ?

As for Mew itself....

1. Red Light, Green Light.
Mew is 40 cm tall. It's going to be very easy for it to hide behind other players, especially if there's hundreds of them, & it'll take up far less of the camera's view. & Pokemon are known for learning well & being mindful of instructions. Mew is also noted as being highly intelligent. With a supposed estimated distance of 100 meters or so....
Average Human is 5 - 7.7 meters per second. 6.35 m/s on average, since you said "Average Human" at best, does this mean you're capping everyone at 5 m/s. The speed tier below Average Human, Below Average Human is 0 to 5 m/s, so average of 2.5 m/s.
So somewhere between BAH Average Speed & either AH's Baseline or AH's Average, that puts it at 2.5 + EITHER 5 or 6.35, that means the average speed will be either 3.75 m/s for running (1.4 m/s for walking.), OR 4.175 m/s for running.

Anyway, I don't know how long the doll has everyone stopped or allowed to move, so I'll guess 5 seconds.
No flight means Mew, being like a cat, probably runs on all fours.
At the absolute lowest, constantly walking 1.4 m/s, crossing 100 meters takes 71.43~ seconds, A little over a minute. But it's twice that if an equal amount of time is spent stopped. 142.86 seconds. About 2 minutes & 22 seconds.
Since everyone has 5 minutes, or 300 seconds, Game 1 is easily cleared, so long as you're dilligent & don't get seen moving. Easy.

2. Dalgona shapes.

The Dalgona comes in a circular can. If you pick circle shape, can you just hand it in as is for a free win?

Even if you note the drawings on the wall early on (Which Mew might; It's kinda isolationist, about the size of a housecat, & doesn't speak human, so it'll probably have time to waste between games, since it's not like it can chat much.), I think it'd be unintuitive to make the connection to carving shapes from honey candy.
& nobody knows, at least not for sure, that you're supposed to carve the shape you picked out of the candy, until after they pick their shape.

Thus, as far as I'm concerned, shape choice seems effectively random.

If we have to actually carve, considering that the Dalgona is brittle & prone to microfractures as you crack it, I'm unsure if circle or triangle is easiest, but star seems to take 2nd hardest, & umbrella is hardest. Apparently.
Mew has tiny hands, & doesn't really have digits. It can probably operate a needle, & being so small, it can probably operate with more precision. Smaller body means smaller tongue, so it might not affect the candy as much by licking it.

If your omission of Striking Strength restriction from the rules means they maintain their normal SS, then Mew needs to hold back (Though it usually doesn't use its full power.) so it doesn't accidentally break the candy.

Anyway, this should be doable. Probably a coin flip's chance, since circle & triangle should be doable, star is maybe, & umbrella is difficult, & Mew's size means it can be more precise, even if it's less dextrous. But if Striking Strength is unchanged, it has to be careful not to accidentally break the candy.

3. Tug-of-War.
@Bernkastelll : You didn't say Lifting Strength was changed, & it's reasonable to assume there's big differences in LS among the participants, since that's a plot point that one team has a lopsided advantage, so I'll assumed this is unchanged.
Which would mean Mew laughs in Class Z Lifting Strength when it has to play Tug of War against 10 regular humans.

If LS were restricted to human levels, there's still ways to cheat that not everyone may think of (As the video points out.); Tying it around yourself, gripping with your thighs & such, to use more of your body weight, being at the back & tying it to the metal bars.... Of course, Mew doesn't have much body weight to throw around.
Still, the guards only kill for losing or breaking the rules they say, & cheating seems to be approved, after all.

If Mew were limited to only matching human LS, though, it's extreme lightness would be a slight detriment; Compared to a human, at 40 cm & 4 kg, Mew is shorter than a newborn baby & lighter than a 1-year-old.

Still, Squid Game had a team with multiple skinny women & an old man win this via clever tactics, & Mew is only one tenth of whatever team it gets. & like I said, @Bernkastelll didn't specify LS is changed, so with unchanged LS, Mew solos.... If not, should still be doable, since Mew is noted as highly intelligent, & tricks like in the show, & ways to cheat or use more of your team's body weight to overcome a heavier/stronger team are a thing, as olympic rules are a testament to.

4. Get your opponent's marbles.
This is kind of a toss-up, because picking a partner is done before the game, but going partnerless means a free win, which no one knows/is told. Not to mention, after you've picked your partner, what marble games you play are up to you & your partner.

Mew will not show itself to anyone without a pure heart & a strong desire to see it. Even if it can't detect these because everyone's hax is disabled, that may just be interpreted as no one meeting its standards. Not to mention, the game deliberately seeks out the desperate & dejected for players; Observation will probably make most undesirable for Mew.
& if its overwhelming Striking Strength & Lifting Strength ARE restricted here, then no one's going to want the freaky fetus cat that can't talk for a partner, unless there's a crazy cat lady in the group.
There's a good chance Mew just doesn't get a partner, & passes through that, like that 1 woman did.

If it does end up playing a game, though, it'll have to somehow explain the rules of its game of choice to its partner non-verbally (Pencil & paper? Write in the sand?), & probably win by:
A. Choosing the math game Nim & going first then always picking the opposite of the opponent's choice.
B. Pick a game of reflexes played low to the ground(Ex: With a circle in the ground.); Mew is closer to the ground, & has 1 more limb than its opponent (Tail), but their speed is roughly the same. Its limbs don't have to travel as far to reach the marbles, & since it has 1 more than its opponent, it can exploit this if there's a marble game of speed. But IDK if there's actually such a game.
C. Deceive/climb onto partner/opponent, maybe feign being a dumb animal, & steal their marbles; Violence is punishable by death from the guards, so just don't hurt your partner, & let them die if they try to attack when Mew robs. Or wait for them to have their guard down.

Mew has roughly 4 ways to pass game 4, so it should be doable.

5. Cross the glass bridges.
The only potentially problematic part of this is getting Mew into a suit. If it has its regular LS, it's trivial to drag that. If not, & they don't have Mew-sized suits, it's a bit awkward to drag a suit along.

Nonetheless, your average human will weigh over 50 kg. Some say the average is 62 kg.
Mew weighs only 4 kilograms, & being only 40 cm tall, so....

Well, the regular glass might not actually break under it. & plus, it can probably just straddle along the metal bars. With a 60 minute time limit, it can take its time as long as it doesn't go too late. I have no idea what number Mew prefers, so it seems random.

6. Squid Game (Ojingeo).
Mew can't speak, so it's unclear if it can call a side of the coin for the coin flip, & thus, may not have a choice if it's on Offense or Defense.
But given it's tiny, yet as fast as a regular human in this, most opponents would have trouble stopping it; They'd have to bend over, & stop it running between or around their legs if it's on offense. Run to circle, tap foot, game.
If it's on Defense.... Well, you gave it 10-B to 10-A AP, Durability, though you didn't mention Striking Strength or Lifting Strength. If your omission means these aren't altered (& I'd assume LS isn't, because tug of war is based largely on differences in LS.), Mew can just judo flip its opponent to the ground or such & either send them out of bounds if it's on Defense, or leave them bruised while it goes to the circle if it's on Offense.

If we limit it to human abilities, one option might be to just attack their knees, if it's on a practically equalized level of strength; Nothing to stop an opponent moving like broken knees. Attacking the groin or maybe the vulnerable stomach is also an option.
ESPECIALLY if it gets the steak knife after dinner; A small target is much worse with a knife.

So, even if ALL of its stats are limited, I'd assume Mew clears Game 6 easily if it's on Offense, with or without the knife, but if it doesn't have the knife AND is on Defense, it has more difficulty if it can't stab the attacker in the stomach/kneecaps to stop their approach.


Overall, Game 1 is easy. Games 2 is probably a coin flip, 3 is doable with a decent team & even easier with good tactics (Which I'd assume Mew could figure out.), Game 4 is either cleared by Mew not wanting to partner with anyone or by playing Nim, exploiting having an extra limb & closeness to ground in marble games, or by catching the opponent off-guard & stealing their marble pouch, since attacking is death in Game 4.
Game 5 is very easy for Mew, because it can much more easily avoid breaking regular glass just by being small & light, & Game 6 is easy on Offense, but difficult on Defense without the knife, even with exploiting being a hard target to hit, unless its opponent is weak.

Hopefully that wasn't too long.
 
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"Normal Human", unlike "Average Human", is not an actual Speed Rating on VSBW.
But depending on who's estimation you use, most humans walk at an average of 1.4 meters per second, or maybe 3 to 4 mph (1.34112 m/s to 1.78816 m/s.) or so.

Did you wanna clarify what you meant here @Bernkastelll ?
I meant normal human (average) to athletic lmao
"Normal Human", unlike "Average Human", is not an actual Speed Rating on VSBW.
But depending on who's estimation you use, most humans walk at an average of 1.4 meters per second, or maybe 3 to 4 mph (1.34112 m/s to 1.78816 m/s.) or so.

Did you wanna clarify what you meant here @Bernkastelll ?

As for Mew itself....

1. Red Light, Green Light.
Mew is 40 cm tall. It's going to be very easy for it to hide behind other players, especially if there's hundreds of them, & it'll take up far less of the camera's view. & Pokemon are known for learning well & being mindful of instructions. Mew is also noted as being highly intelligent. With a supposed estimated distance of 100 meters or so....
Average Human is 5 - 7.7 meters per second. 6.35 m/s on average, since you said "Average Human" at best, does this mean you're capping everyone at 5 m/s. The speed tier below Average Human, Below Average Human is 0 to 5 m/s, so average of 2.5 m/s.
So somewhere between BAH Average Speed & either AH's Baseline or AH's Average, that puts it at 2.5 + EITHER 5 or 6.35, that means the average speed will be either 3.75 m/s for running (1.4 m/s for walking.), OR 4.175 m/s for running.

Anyway, I don't know how long the doll has everyone stopped or allowed to move, so I'll guess 5 seconds.
No flight means Mew, being like a cat, probably runs on all fours.
At the absolute lowest, constantly walking 1.4 m/s, crossing 100 meters takes 71.43~ seconds, A little over a minute. But it's twice that if an equal amount of time is spent stopped. 142.86 seconds. About 2 minutes & 22 seconds.
Since everyone has 5 minutes, or 300 seconds, Game 1 is easily cleared, so long as you're dilligent & don't get seen moving. Easy.
there is also another problem, people usually push each others, as they get nervous and starts running away pushing each other
2. Dalgona shapes.

The Dalgona comes in a circular can. If you pick circle shape, can you just hand it in as is for a free win?

Even if you note the drawings on the wall early on (Which Mew might; It's kinda isolationist, about the size of a housecat, & doesn't speak human, so it'll probably have time to waste between games, since it's not like it can chat much.), I think it'd be unintuitive to make the connection to carving shapes from honey candy.
& nobody knows, at least not for sure, that you're supposed to carve the shape you picked out of the candy, until after they pick their shape.

Thus, as far as I'm concerned, shape choice seems effectively random.

If we have to actually carve, considering that the Dalgona is brittle & prone to microfractures as you crack it, I'm unsure if circle or triangle is easiest, but star seems to take 2nd hardest, & umbrella is hardest. Apparently.
Mew has tiny hands, & doesn't really have digits. It can probably operate a needle, & being so small, it can probably operate with more precision. Smaller body means smaller tongue, so it might not affect the candy as much by licking it.

If your omission of Striking Strength restriction from the rules means they maintain their normal SS, then Mew needs to hold back (Though it usually doesn't use its full power.) so it doesn't accidentally break the candy.

Anyway, this should be doable. Probably a coin flip's chance, since circle & triangle should be doable, star is maybe, & umbrella is difficult, & Mew's size means it can be more precise, even if it's less dextrous. But if Striking Strength is unchanged, it has to be careful not to accidentally break the candy.
About the circle, no, it is not a free win, u need to cut directly the circle that is drawn, oh well, striking strength also is like, human level, also applies to lifting strength, otherwise, it would be unfair to the others players XD
3. Tug-of-War.
@Bernkastelll : You didn't say Lifting Strength was changed, & it's reasonable to assume there's big differences in LS among the participants, since that's a plot point that one team has a lopsided advantage, so I'll assumed this is unchanged.
Which would mean Mew laughs in Class Z Lifting Strength when it has to play Tug of War against 10 regular humans.

If LS were restricted to human levels, there's still ways to cheat that not everyone may think of (As the video points out.); Tying it around yourself, gripping with your thighs & such, to use more of your body weight, being at the back & tying it to the metal bars.... Of course, Mew doesn't have much body weight to throw around.
Still, the guards only kill for losing or breaking the rules they say, & cheating seems to be approved, after all.

If Mew were limited to only matching human LS, though, it's extreme lightness would be a slight detriment; Compared to a human, at 40 cm & 4 kg, Mew is shorter than a newborn baby & lighter than a 1-year-old.

Still, Squid Game had a team with multiple skinny women & an old man win this via clever tactics, & Mew is only one tenth of whatever team it gets. & like I said, @Bernkastelll didn't specify LS is changed, so with unchanged LS, Mew solos.... If not, should still be doable, since Mew is noted as highly intelligent, & tricks like in the show, & ways to cheat or use more of your team's body weight to overcome a heavier/stronger team are a thing, as olympic rules are a testament to.
yeah, lifting strength also is like human level XD, but yeah, mew is inteligent, he will probably find a way to win that, fair point, mainly that tricky are allowed
4. Get your opponent's marbles.
This is kind of a toss-up, because picking a partner is done before the game, but going partnerless means a free win, which no one knows/is told. Not to mention, after you've picked your partner, what marble games you play are up to you & your partner.

Mew will not show itself to anyone without a pure heart & a strong desire to see it. Even if it can't detect these because everyone's hax is disabled, that may just be interpreted as no one meeting its standards. Not to mention, the game deliberately seeks out the desperate & dejected for players; Observation will probably make most undesirable for Mew.
& if its overwhelming Striking Strength & Lifting Strength ARE restricted here, then no one's going to want the freaky fetus cat that can't talk for a partner, unless there's a crazy cat lady in the group.
There's a good chance Mew just doesn't get a partner, & passes through that, like that 1 woman did.

If it does end up playing a game, though, it'll have to somehow explain the rules of its game of choice to its partner non-verbally (Pencil & paper? Write in the sand?), & probably win by:
A. Choosing the math game Nim & going first then always picking the opposite of the opponent's choice.
B. Pick a game of reflexes played low to the ground in a ground (Ex: With a circle in the ground.); Mew is closer to the ground, & has 1 more limb than its opponent (Tail), but their speed is roughly the same. Its limbs don't have to travel as far to reach the marbles, & since it has 1 more than its opponent, it can exploit this if there's a marble game of speed. But IDK if there's actually such a game.
C. Deceive/climb onto partner/opponent, maybe feign being a dumb animal, & steal their marbles; Violence is punishable by death from the guards, so just don't hurt your partner, & let them die if they try to attack when Mew robs. Or wait for them to have their guard down.

Mew has roughly 4 ways to pass game 4, so it should be doable.
good analysis, i actually think that he will be alone and will pass, like that annoying woman, but i also think that even if he doesnt ends alone, he can win the game if its properly explained, as he should have more talent than an average person, overall, he probably passes it
5. Cross the glass bridges.
The only potentially problematic part of this is getting Mew into a suit. If it has its regular LS, it's trivial to drag that. If not, & they don't have Mew-sized suits, it's a bit awkward to drag a suit along.

Nonetheless, your average human will weigh over 50 kg. Some say the average is 62 kg.
Mew weighs only 4 kilograms, & being only 40 cm tall, so....

Well, the regular glass might not actually break under it. & plus, it can probably just straddle along the metal bars. With a 60 minute time limit, it can take its time as long as it doesn't go too late. I have no idea what number Mew prefers, so it seems random.
fair analysis, but im not sure if the glasses would support his weight at all, it seems to be too weak
6. Squid Game (Ojingeo).
Mew can't speak, so it's unclear if it can call a side of the coin for the coin flip, & thus, may not have a choice if it's on Offense or Defense.
But given it's tiny, yet as fast as a regular human in this, most opponents would have trouble stopping it; They'd have to bend over, & stop it running between or around their legs if it's on offense. Run to circle, tap foot, game.
If it's on Defense.... Well, you gave it 10-B to 10-A AP, Durability, though you didn't mention Striking Strength or Lifting Strength. If your omission means these aren't altered (& I'd assume LS isn't, because tug of war is based largely on differences in LS.), Mew can just judo flip its opponent to the ground or such & either send them out of bounds if it's on Defense, or leave them bruised while it goes to the circle if it's on Offense.

If we limit it to human abilities, one option might be to just attack their knees, if it's on a practically equalized level of strength; Nothing to stop an opponent moving like broken knees. Attacking the groin or maybe the vulnerable stomach is also an option.
ESPECIALLY if it gets the steak knife after dinner; A small target is much worse with a knife.

So, even if ALL of its stats are limited, I'd assume Mew clears Game 6 easily if it's on Offense, with or without the knife, but if it doesn't have the knife AND is on Defense, it has more difficulty if it can't stab the attacker in the stomach/kneecaps to stop their approach.


Overall, Game 1 is easy. Games 2 is probably a coin flip, 3 is doable with a decent team & even easier with good tactics (Which I'd assume Mew could figure out.), Game 4 is either cleared by Mew not wanting to partner with anyone or by playing Nim, exploiting having an extra limb & closeness to ground in marble games, or by catching the opponent off-guard & stealing their marble pouch, since attacking is death in Game 4.
Game 5 is very easy for Mew, because it can much more easily avoid breaking regular glass just by being small & light, & Game 6 is easy on Offense, but difficult on Defense without the knife, even with exploiting being a hard target to hit, unless its opponent is weak.

Hopefully that wasn't too long.
yeah, i also think that he can easily clear the round 6 lmao, humans arent used to fight against these kind of creatures, by the way, which % of chance do u think that Mew have to win the game? also, don't worry about the amount of words lmao, it was pretty nice to read and analysis it, in fact, im having fun with this
 
I meant normal human (average) to athletic lmao
Good to know.
there is also another problem, people usually push each others, as they get nervous and starts running away pushing each other
If people are pushing each other, they're probably pushing closer to arm level, since arms & shoulders & torso are what do most pushing, so Mew wouldn't be pushed around much by that.
However, it would have to be careful to go between or around people's legs if they start stampeding so that it doesn't get trampled. It also needs to not get too deep in the crowd, so that it can keep line of sight on the doll.
In theory, it could climb onto someone's head or back, lol. If it really needs to keep the doll in view that badly.
fair analysis, but im not sure if the glasses would support his weight at all, it seems to be too weak
Are you sure? Mew is 4 kilograms; Only about 12.5% the weight of even the lightest average human. A typical domestic housecat weighs 4.5 kg. Would that glass really break under the weight of your pet cat?
Still, the option of just clinging to the metal bars is an option when you're literally baby size/less than a quarter the size of a grown woman.
yeah, i also think that he can easily clear the round 6 lmao, humans arent used to fight against these kind of creatures, by the way, which % of chance do u think that Mew have to win the game? also, don't worry about the amount of words lmao, it was pretty nice to read and analysis it, in fact, im having fun with this
Maybe 60% for Game 1 (Stay in cover, don't get trampled, watch the doll; Even at a walk's pace, you have more 4 times the time you need.). Not that dangerous.
Game 2 is roughly 50%, more or less; It's hard to determine how much more difficult carving a star is than a circle or a triangle, but at least 2 of the shapes are easy (Circle & triangle.), Star isn't TOO hard, & umbrella is really hard. Microfractures mean whether your candy breaks too much is kinda random. It's unclear how much the 10 minute time limit, dexterity with pin, small size precision, & licking affects at Mew's size, but it's still a factor.
Game 3 is a toss-up; You don't know if the opponent will know of/employ the same cheatsy tactics, or if they even can. Ex: Whoever's at the back of the line may not know to tie the rope. Mew is at a slight disadvantage in Game 3 for being practically an Average to Athletic Human LS who weighs 4 kg among people who weigh more than 10 times that, but it's 1 of 10 team members, & may be smarter than average, or underestimated. So I'd say Game 3 is roughly 50%; Mew MIGHT be the weakest 10% of the team, but it's known as being highly intelligent, so it'll probably do the cheatsy stuff needed to win.
Game 4 I'd probably give a... 70%? Mew's character makes it likely to auto-pass by not getting a partner, but if it does get a partner, it can still win so long as it can explain the rules.
Game 5. 90%. Even if the glass can't support a small cat on it, this is still easy.
Game 6. 55%. Mew very easily handles Offense due to being small yet just as fast, as well as smart. It seems like the steak knife is given to everyone, which makes Mew deadlier with it for being harder to hit.

60 + 50 + 50 + 70 + 90 + 55 = 375. 375 / 6 = 62.5%
This is a very rough estimation, because a lot of this stuff is hard to quantify, & it could be more or less; A lot of Mew's chances are dependent on it being smart & exploiting being small & light. It also doesn't account for in-between rounds. (But being small enough to hide under beds or climbing poles makes it a pain to actually get your hands on, & we're only concerned with the games, right? Plus, who's going to think the cat will win.)

So yeah. IF I did my math right, I'd hazard a haphazard guess that Mew is more or less, very roughly 62.5% chance to survive, & I could believe its chances being lesser with the rules you have in place, & the nuances of some of the game. (Like the dalgona being so brittle.) For most of the games, it's physique/mindset is a boon, & being underestimated could be good in an environment like this.
 
(I'll just pick 4 favorite characters since I have alot)

Game 1:

Alibaba: He'd pass RLGL. I don't see him having an issue with this one tbh.

Okabe: Okabe honestly reminds me of Gi-hun. While I can potentially see him failing, I can also see him passing this. He's very strong minded, so even if he's afraid, he can calm himself down. Not sure if equipment is allowed, but if it is, he has "smoke bombs" that can allow him to cover himself in smoke or even the whole place so that he can move freely or do whatever he needs to do. (I also assume his time equipment/hax aren't allowed here due to it being "hax".)

Mob: Mob... 😭.. he'd probably die.. without his abilities he can't really do much, and I could imagine him being so scared he probably wouldn't move. Unless someone like Reigen was there to cheer him on, he most likely wouldn't make it 😭..

Subaru: SHAMAK!!! He clears.

Game 2:

Alibaba: For some reason, I could imagine Alibaba picking the star shaped one for no particular reason. I could see him using his dijin powers to melt the candy enough to form a star and passing.

Okabe: Okabe would definitely pick a star due to his over confidence in himself. Same as Gi-Hun he'd lick the f outta that bad boy.

Subaru: Subaru would probably pick the triangle. Knowing him he'd definitely over think the challenge and go with something pretty easy. Luckily for him, the triangle is one of the easiest. But he'd probably be too scared to move, and probably start licking the food either after figuring it out himself, or seeing others do it too.

NIGHT

Alibaba: Alibaba should be perfectly fine. He's a swordfighter afterall, and can also slow down his perception of time to avoid getting into any danger (if that's allowed). He could also amass a following. He has qualities of a king as well as some social influencing (which isn't on his page.. but he does in the series. I should make a CRT on it soon..)

Okabe: Same as Game 1. He also has a lightsaber which he can fool tons of people with, since it has fake blood on it to fool people. He can then amass a bunch of people to follow him (he too, should has social influencing..).

Subaru: SHAMAK!!! He survives.

Game 3:

Alibaba: Not quite sure whether he wins or loses this.. I mean, he's a very capable and smart leader so he could potentially come up with a plan to win...

Okabe: Same with Alibaba.

Subaru: He's actually pretty strong (Above Average Human to Athletic Human) so he should be able to take this just via LS alone more times than not.

Game 4:

Alibaba: He unfortunately loses this. He most definitely doesn't have the heart to kill another person to advance, he'd try to come up with a way for both of them to win, but to no avail.

Okabe: Same as Alibaba. He'd most likely have a partner cause he's super smart and has a lightsaber o_O

Subaru: Probably not as well :(...


So to answer the question: NO.
 
(I'll just pick 4 favorite characters since I have alot)

Game 1:

Alibaba: He'd pass RLGL. I don't see him having an issue with this one tbh.

Okabe: Okabe honestly reminds me of Gi-hun. While I can potentially see him failing, I can also see him passing this. He's very strong minded, so even if he's afraid, he can calm himself down. Not sure if equipment is allowed, but if it is, he has "smoke bombs" that can allow him to cover himself in smoke or even the whole place so that he can move freely or do whatever he needs to do. (I also assume his time equipment/hax aren't allowed here due to it being "hax".)

Mob: Mob... 😭.. he'd probably die.. without his abilities he can't really do much, and I could imagine him being so scared he probably wouldn't move. Unless someone like Reigen was there to cheer him on, he most likely wouldn't make it 😭..

Subaru: SHAMAK!!! He clears.

Game 2:

Alibaba: For some reason, I could imagine Alibaba picking the star shaped one for no particular reason. I could see him using his dijin powers to melt the candy enough to form a star and passing.

Okabe: Okabe would definitely pick a star due to his over confidence in himself. Same as Gi-Hun he'd lick the f outta that bad boy.

Subaru: Subaru would probably pick the triangle. Knowing him he'd definitely over think the challenge and go with something pretty easy. Luckily for him, the triangle is one of the easiest. But he'd probably be too scared to move, and probably start licking the food either after figuring it out himself, or seeing others do it too.

NIGHT

Alibaba: Alibaba should be perfectly fine. He's a swordfighter afterall, and can also slow down his perception of time to avoid getting into any danger (if that's allowed). He could also amass a following. He has qualities of a king as well as some social influencing (which isn't on his page.. but he does in the series. I should make a CRT on it soon..)

Okabe: Same as Game 1. He also has a lightsaber which he can fool tons of people with, since it has fake blood on it to fool people. He can then amass a bunch of people to follow him (he too, should has social influencing..).

Subaru: SHAMAK!!! He survives.

Game 3:

Alibaba: Not quite sure whether he wins or loses this.. I mean, he's a very capable and smart leader so he could potentially come up with a plan to win...

Okabe: Same with Alibaba.

Subaru: He's actually pretty strong (Above Average Human to Athletic Human) so he should be able to take this just via LS alone more times than not.

Game 4:

Alibaba: He unfortunately loses this. He most definitely doesn't have the heart to kill another person to advance, he'd try to come up with a way for both of them to win, but to no avail.

Okabe: Same as Alibaba. He'd most likely have a partner cause he's super smart and has a lightsaber o_O

Subaru: Probably not as well :(...


So to answer the question: NO.
I thought all haxes are locked why does alibaba have time manipulation???
 
I thought all haxes are locked why does alibaba have time manipulation???
Well I still think he could survive the night soley because he's a smart and strong fighter himself. The time manip was just an add on just in case it wasn't restricted, but if it is my point should still stand
 
Well since its not a proper vs thread I think its safe to bump this with my two cents

Joseph Joestar: I'm pretty confident in his odds, even if he has no hamon the guy is so crafty he can probably get through it all. Only one I can see him possibly fumbling in is the glass game

Goro Majima: Pretty much the same, he might die in the marble or glass game but the last one is easy for him.

The Courier: An adept gambler and skilled social expert I also favour him
 
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